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#1

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 04:00:42 PM

I have no sympathy.

I'm not very surprised. 

[In Madhya Pradesh, party activists like Shrivastava receive a daily itinerary every morning through a party-run app called Sangathan (Organisation). Their assignments can range from helping out with local services such as garbage collection to visiting at least five houses for tea with voters.]

#2

Off the Record / Indian Elections 2024

Last post by Sheilbh - Today at 04:00:23 PM

First of 7 polling days across India - an electorate of one billion voting over the next six weeks. And I think the result is a foregone conclusion with Modi likely to win a third term although the opposition parties have formed a common slate (the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance ) and I believe Indian elections tend to be very difficult to predict as there's often a big gap between polls, expectations and results - more surprises than normal. So who knows.

But I thought this was really interesting from the FT on BJP party activists (it is, after all, reportedly the largest political party in the democratic world - second only to the CCP). In particular them as a cadre party v Congress' as a leader party. It also echoes what I've heard from Indian journalists that the BJP works very hard for votes. Something I've also heard listening to Indian journalists talking about it which isn't mentioned here is that there are consequences in the BJP, so party organisers who do badly get demoted and have to work their way up again, while in Congress there's a lot of loyalty/old hands who've failed repeatedly still hanging around at the top running things.

(Warning: long and many images )

Is India's BJP the world's most ruthlessly efficient political party?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party has built one of the most formidable electoral machines in recent history
BJP organisers on the streets of Bhopal © Anindito Mukherjee/FT
Benjamin Parkin, John Reed and Jyotsna Singh in Bhopal April 17 2024

With a vermilion Hindu tika smeared on his forehead and a saffron and green scarf swathed around his neck, Dimple Shrivastava is ready for a busy day of campaigning with Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata party.

The 29-year-old party volunteer in Bhopal, a city of lakes and palaces in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, is hoping to ensure Modi's return for a historic third term in elections that start this week and in which almost 1bn people are registered to vote.

In Madhya Pradesh, party activists like Shrivastava receive a daily itinerary every morning through a party-run app called Sangathan (Organisation). Their assignments can range from helping out with local services such as garbage collection to visiting at least five houses for tea with voters.

"We can understand more or less who is not voting [for the BJP] and why, so we focus on them," says the activist, who must then upload photos on the app proving he met his daily targets.

Since Modi first won power a decade ago, the BJP has dominated Indian politics. The party won a majority in the lower house in 2019 and together with its allies controls more than half of India's states, including Madhya Pradesh.

A big part of that success is often attributed to the personal charisma of Modi, who has developed an almost cult-like presence in Indian politics and who has used holograms to appear at multiple rallies around the country. Critics complain about creeping authoritarianism under Modi, whose government has cracked down on opposition rivals and civil society voices.

But what is less appreciated is the sheer organisational depth and discipline of Modi's party, which has become one of the most efficient electoral machines in modern democratic politics.

The BJP claims it has 180mn members, although this figure is impossible to verify and follows a scheme where supporters simply had to call a number to register as members. Independent analysts say there are no accurate figures for party membership but nonetheless agree that the party can mobilise large armies of volunteers that allow it to crowd out its rivals on the street.

"This is the most organised and effective political party in the democratic world," says Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, author of a biography of Modi. That status is "in large part because it is also backed by the millions-strong cadre of its ideological fountainhead, the RSS", India's Hindu nationalist parent organisation.

The party is structured into a series of state, district and local-level units in a strategy designed to deploy its manpower with such granularity that each grassroots worker can target as few as 30 voters. In many parts of the country, there is a BJP representative on practically every street.


The BJP's Lakshmi Prakash Gorewar and Dimple Shrivastava talk to voters in Bhopal. The party has cultivated an army of workers like Gorewar, who is from a lower caste, to act as a bridge between the government and ordinary Indians © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


Shrivastava and other BJP activists receive a daily itinerary every morning from the party with assignments ranging from helping out with local services to visiting at least five houses for tea with voters © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

This helps with everything from relentless door-knocking to social media campaigns in which activists disseminate talking points to neighbourhood WhatsApp groups. Their messaging often combines promotion of Modi's signature welfare and development schemes with religious rhetoric that celebrates his role as a defender of Hinduism. Analysts say that none of the BJP's national rivals can compete with this street-level operation.

"They have sliced the electorate along geographical and sociological units," says Christophe Jaffrelot, a professor of political science at Sciences Po and King's College London. "You have WhatsApp groups for streets, for lawyers, for shopkeepers. These people in war rooms are bombarding them with messages for their vote."

With the morning heat beginning to bite in Rahul Nagar, a hilly working-class Bhopal neighbourhood, Shrivastava is joined by about a dozen other BJP activists. Slowly marching through the neighbourhood's narrow alleys, they chant Modi's name and knock on doors with well-rehearsed pitches about the party's work.

Manju Mandolia, a 30-year-old mother of two, interrupts them to complain about her inability to secure free food supplies due to out-of-date paperwork. Shrivastava assures her that he will personally see to it that she is registered that very day.

"This is Modi-Ji's guarantee," he declares, reminding them who to thank come polling day. "For the first time, a leader is doing huge work for the nation. His leadership is the cause of immense pride for us."

Even Modi's opponents concede the strength of the BJP's grassroots effort. "They have the machine on the ground . . . we are not a cadre party: we have been a leader party," Jairam Ramesh, head of communications at the rival Indian National Congress party, told the FT during a recent trip by Rahul Gandhi, the main face of Congress, to Madhya Pradesh.

Rajneesh Agrawal, a BJP state secretary, says this organisational drive keeps the party on its toes. "Sometimes workers become overconfident and think we may win anyway, so we keep doing activities, setting them targets," he says. Come voting day, "we will start bugging our booth-level workers from 5am".

In the election, which takes place over seven phases from April 19 to June 1, the BJP is targeting a two-thirds majority in parliament, increasing their count from 303 to 370 of 543 seats.

If Modi were to achieve such a victory, it would give him the powers to implement sweeping economic reforms. It would also allow him to do much more to enshrine Hindu values — and for many BJP supporters, this goal remains a central element of the party's appeal.

One of the BJP's political strengths is its roots in Hindu religious organisations. The party was created in 1980 as an offshoot of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a paramilitary religious nationalist group set up under British colonial rule to protect Hindu culture and transform India into a Hindu homeland.

The RSS and its affiliates, which include trade unions, NGOs and women's groups, have not only served as a source of BJP ideology but a feeder organisation and vast support network.

Modi himself came to the BJP via the RSS, joining the group as an activist in his native state Gujarat in his twenties before switching to party politics. He became the BJP's general secretary in 1987 and in 2001 he was named the state's chief minister. Top ministers in Modi's government, such as Amit Shah and Nitin Gadkari, have also worked with the RSS.

The RSS has for decades championed causes to address long-standing Hindu grievances that, under Modi, became core tenets of the BJP government's agenda.

This included revoking autonomy for India's only Muslim-majority territory, Jammu and Kashmir, in 2019 alongside campaigns to "liberate" Hindu shrines allegedly defiled by Muslim rulers over the centuries. It culminated with Modi inaugurating a new temple to Lord Ram on the site of a demolished mosque in January, considered by many to be the prime minister's greatest triumph.

While the RSS denies that it campaigns for any political party, analysts say that its members are a valuable source of manpower for the BJP when needed. "The RSS has front organisations or affiliated bodies across every spectrum you could think of," says Mukhopadhyay. "And they all step out to campaign for the BJP candidates."

Among the next generation of leaders is Sanjay Singh Rathour, a coiffed, muscular 26-year-old who started with the Bajrang Dal, a militant RSS-affiliated youth group, before becoming a BJP youth leader in Bhopal. Rathour says his time at the Bajrang Dal inspired him to champion Hindu nationalism.

Outsiders "can't but be impressed with what they see, our dedication, discipline and service", says Rathour, whose office wallpaper is decorated with an oversized image of the new Ram temple. "When people see us they can see and feel our commitment and discipline, and they get connected to us."


The BJP activists go door-to-door in Bhopal, where they are often joined by party supporters who chant Narendra Modi's name © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


A BJP worker in Bhopal gathers party paraphernalia next to a painting of Narendra Modi. Welfare has been a central part of the prime minister's appeal among India's hundreds of millions of poor and marginalised people © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

His job now is to cultivate the next generation of BJP supporters, particularly among young voters: The Election Commission says 18mn 18 and 19-year-olds will be casting a ballot this year for the first time.

Like Shrivastava, Rathour's day begins with instructions through the Sangathan app, summoning him to a planning meeting with his boss, a BJP state assembly member, and then to meet beneficiaries of government welfare schemes. He garlands them with caps and scarves, decorated with Modi's face, in the BJP's saffron.

After an evening prayer meeting, Rathour visits a nearby tea shop for a conversation with first-time voters over cups of hot, sugary chai. Among them is Gaurav Mahajan, a 22-year-old student and first-time voter who needs little convincing.

Mahajan says the proliferation of new roads and electricity connections in Bhopal has boosted the value of his family home. But he also admires how the party has placed Hinduism, the religion of 80 per cent of the population, at the centre of public life.

"Being a Hindu is a VIP tag," Mahajan says. "When the BJP comes back to power this time, I am very sure India will be declared a Hindu nation. I want that to happen because then no minority can crush us."

The RSS has flourished under Modi, claiming that the number of neighbourhood units — known as shakhas — has risen from 45,000 in 2014 to 73,000 today.

The RSS's ascendancy under Modi has alarmed critics, who point to rising hate speech and policies that human rights groups allege are aimed at turning Muslims into second-class citizens.

"The primary glue remains their Islamophobic viewpoint," says Mukhopadhyay. "On the one hand, they say everybody is free to follow their own faith in this country, but they also say everybody is a Hindu: the culture of this land is essentially Hindu."

Joining Shrivastava on his rounds in Rahul Nagar is Lakshmi Prakash Gorewar, a formidable 51-year-old who is head of the local BJP's women's wing.

Gorewar is from one of the lowest and most marginalised of India's caste groups. Modi is himself is from an underprivileged caste and one of the prime minister's triumphs has been to broaden the BJP into a mass movement that appeals well beyond its traditional base of upper-caste male Hindus to women and lower-caste Indians too.

The party has cultivated an army of workers like Gorewar to act as a bridge between the government and ordinary Indians, helping resolve bureaucratic hurdles and vowing to stamp out the corruption and pilferage that has plagued welfare distribution.

"Modi has worked a lot, and the workers have been working with their mind, body and financial strength," she says. "We are very committed to bringing Modi-Ji back in power. Women in particular want to see that happen."

"You cannot win in India by upper-caste patriarchy," says Devesh Kapur, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins University. "Once you've got a level of consolidation around [upper-caste] Hindus, then the next level is that you want to make sure that all caste groups are represented."

Election data from 2019 collected by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in New Delhi showed how a sharp shift in support among women and lower caste groups towards the BJP helped propel them to a majority.

"We see a range of surveys around the world that men are voting more rightwing and women are voting more leftwing," Kapur adds. "In India, it's an exception. Women have moved to the BJP."


The BJP's Sanjay Singh Rathour speaks to first-time voters in Bhopal. He says outsiders 'can't but be impressed with what they see, our dedication, discipline and service' © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


Rathour adds that 'when people see us they can see and feel our commitment and discipline, and they get connected to us' © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

Gorewar says women have benefited disproportionately, pointing to a cash-transfer programme for women and another offering subsidised cooking gas. (Modi this year announced a cut in cooking gas cylinder prices on March 8, International Women's Day.) They "have cemented the BJP's position among female voters", she says.

Residents of Rahul Nagar, who are primarily from lower castes, still tend to prefer the rival Bahujan Samaj party. Gorewar, who has held door-to-door meetings in the area almost every day for the past three months, explains it is her job to convince them otherwise.

Welfare has been a central part of Modi's appeal among India's hundreds of millions of poor and marginalised people. Since taking power in 2014, the prime minister has stepped up spending on social transfers and subsidies for food, fertiliser and housing, including a scheme in which more than 800mn people receive free rice and wheat. Even those programmes that existed before Modi have been branded for maximum political benefit, often by affixing his image to handouts.

Pankaj Chaturvedi, a spokesman for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, says the BJP's popularity comes from its ability to deliver. "[Activists] never tell you, 'Go and vote for the BJP'. They say: 'Go and vote for that person who is going to benefit you more,'" he says. "People can judge the difference."

Yet life in neighbourhoods like Rahul Nagar remains tough. Joblessness is high with nationwide youth unemployment at 45 per cent last year, according to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. And Gorewar is met with a chorus of complaints, mostly from women lamenting their struggles securing paperwork for food handouts or the lack of local drainage that leaves putrid water to cascade through the area.

At one point, Gorewar delights the crowd by haranguing a group of municipal electricity workers to improve local service. The party's welfare schemes "have cemented the BJP's position among female voters", she says.

To fund such a massive enterprise, the BJP needs deep financial backing, and it has found it, from donors large and small.

In addition to welfare, the party promotes a centre-right, laissez-faire, pro-big business economic agenda, and has through its history enjoyed support among business — from small-scale entrepreneurs to big conglomerates.

The symbiotic relationship between the BJP and business has become the subject of intense scrutiny in the build-up to the election, with Congress repeatedly attacking Modi for his close ties to billionaires like Gautam Adani and Mukesh Ambani.

Data from an opaque campaign finance scheme known as electoral bonds underscored how the BJP has dominated its rivals financially. The Supreme Court this year deemed the scheme, introduced by Modi in 2017, unconstitutional over its lack of transparency.

About half of the approximately Rs120bn donated went to the BJP, with leading donors including mining and construction conglomerates and India's so-called lottery king. Congress, by contrast, received only about 10 per cent.

The scheme was structured in a way in which only the government could know the identity of donors, meaning that business "had an incentive to give to the BJP over other parties", says Sukrit Puri, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The limited information available on electoral bonds and other officially reported political contributions is widely thought to underestimate the large amounts of undeclared party financing that analysts say takes place "off the books".

While most of the BJP's donations come from big business, judging by the limited public data available, the party actively deploys its grassroots network to court small donors.

Volunteers like Shrivastava are set fundraising targets and encouraged to collect micro-donations ranging anywhere from Rs1,000 to Rs10,000.


The BJP activists speak to local women in Bhopal. Election data shows how a sharp shift in support among women and lower caste groups towards the BJP helped propel the party to an electoral majority © Anindito Mukherjee/FT


Shrivastava holds up a receipt for a donation to the BJP. While most of the party's donations come from big business, it actively deploys its grassroots network to court small donors © Anindito Mukherjee/FT

Shrivastava, who receives a call from the BJP's state office while campaigning reminding him to meet his fundraising target, says the aim is not only financial but to create long-term relationships with local businesses. "If they can part with their money, then they will be associated with you for their lifetime," he says.

With the BJP's opposition in disarray, its financial dominance and deft blend of personality politics, welfare and religious nationalism has led to a sense of inevitability about the outcome of the poll. Warning signs for the government persist, including simmering frustration over unemployment, which the Modi government has struggled to contain despite a fast-growing economy from which India's conglomerates are profiting.

But analysts say that even after a decade, Modi's election machine appears to be stronger than ever. According to Kapur, the political scientist: "The thing that a lot of [commentators] simply don't get: They work harder than the opposition."

#3

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 03:46:49 PM

Change is inevitable. This is all knee jerk reactions by wealthy people having the rug pulled under them. It happens.

I have no sympathy.

#4

Off the Record / Re: Israel-Hamas War 2023

Last post by Jacob - Today at 03:20:58 PM

The US vetoes full membership for Palestine in the UN.

#5

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 03:18:53 PM

There are a number of stories in The Globe and Mail about how it is preventing a number of deals from going through And especially for an investor now getting cold feet because they returned, they thought they were going to get on their Canadian investments will now be taxed more heavily.

There are always going to be anecdotal stories like this.

Empirically though, we know that investments and productivity were unaffected by the drop from 75% to 50% back in the mid 90s.  The only thing that change is that very rich people became wealthier.  The middle class did not grow stronger as their gains mostly depended from their wages and whatever capital gains they acquired were mostly through their RRSPs (and now, their TSFAs).  There is a tax exemption for the first 971M$ of your business share sales.  That's a bit low, and it will be raised.  Could be higher too.


I'm not very afraid for the long term.  Tax specialists will develop strategies to avoid most of these and the investments will bounce back.

What I don't know is the effect it will have on rent.  I've no idea if rentors will increase their rent immediately rather than wait for an opportunity to make more cash upon the resale of their asset.  Or if it will have an impact on the price of said asset.

#6

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?

Last post by Jacob - Today at 03:16:40 PM

I'm telling you guys. Dave Cameron was in Mar-a-Lago on April 8th. Trump is very lets do what the last famous person I've talk to told me energy.

Yeah, the seems pretty apt.

#7

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 03:13:38 PM

One of the few instances where the CAQ can accomplish something quickly.

When it comes to taxation, governments can be very efficient.

#8

Off the Record / Re: [Canada] Canadian Politics...

Last post by viper37 - Today at 03:02:17 PM

Yeah, it didn't seem correct to me either and so we did get an opinion about what was happening. Unfortunately, it is all true.

Your understanding of what a bear trust should be is correct but the government has changed the definition.

It's almost like the government doesn't understand it's own tax policy 

That is strange.

I will have to inquire carefully about this with the tax specialist...

#9

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?

Last post by Grey Fox - Today at 02:52:32 PM

I'm telling you guys. Dave Cameron was in Mar-a-Lago on April 8th. Trump is very lets do what the last famous person I've talk to told me energy.

#10

Off the Record / Re: Quo Vadis GOP?

Last post by Josquius - Today at 02:46:04 PM

It is curious to see trumps recent tweet where he seems to be pivoting to "I supported Ukraine all along!"

Which... Well. Good news for Ukraine. But transparent.