[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

Fair point

[crazy canuck]

The deficit number is certainly scary for this fiscal year but it is reassuring that we will still be below a 50% debt to GDP ratio even with that big number and a reduced GDP.

I think the next election is going to be about what an appropriate role of government will be over the next decade and the related budget question of what is an appropriate ratio to aim for.

[crazy canuck]

One million jobs returned in June.  Half the jobs lost to COVID.  The optimistic estimate had been 700k.  We are on track for a faster than expected recovery.  We just need to keep the infection rates low. 

[Malthus]

One million jobs returned in June.  Half the jobs lost to COVID.  The optimistic estimate had been 700k.  We are on track for a faster than expected recovery.  We just need to keep the infection rates low.

That's pretty damn good news!

The sixty million dollar question is whether the government(s) has a workable plan for both reopening and keeping the rates down.

[crazy canuck]

One million jobs returned in June.  Half the jobs lost to COVID.  The optimistic estimate had been 700k.  We are on track for a faster than expected recovery.  We just need to keep the infection rates low.

That's pretty damn good news!

The sixty million dollar question is whether the government(s) has a workable plan for both reopening and keeping the rates down.

Agreed.  That is going to be the election issue.  Meanwhile Trudeau makes another ethical blunder.  If the Conservatives were not so inept right now they would have a good chance.  And where is the Singh we saw in the last election?   

[Malthus]

Yup. I don't think Trudeau's dubious ethics are going to sink him, Particularly given the disarray among both conservatives and NDP - the popularity he's gained from standing up to Trump/dealing with the pandemic is still in effect.

What can sink him, is if he's seen to botch the recovery phase.

[Barrister]

Yup. I don't think Trudeau's dubious ethics are going to sink him, Particularly given the disarray among both conservatives and NDP - the popularity he's gained from standing up to Trump/dealing with the pandemic is still in effect.

What can sink him, is if he's seen to botch the recovery phase.

Trudeau has definitely benefited from both a "rally around the flag" effect during the pandemic, combined with being compared to Trump south of the border.

Conservatives select a new leader in August.  There's been rumblings Trudeau may push for a new election this fall, while the bump in his approval is still in effect.  Curious to see what happens.

[Grey Fox]

I don't think Trudeau runs again. Keep this going for the maximum of time the BQ/NDP let you & then go into the senate after having kept Canada a float thru the Covid-19 crisis. Freeland can lead us into another 8 years of prosperity.

[Barrister]

I don't think Trudeau runs again. Keep this going for the maximum of time the BQ/NDP let you & then go into the senate after having kept Canada a float thru the Covid-19 crisis. Freeland can lead us into another 8 years of prosperity.

Why wouldn't Trudeau run again?  He's still a fairly young man at 48.  He had no meaningful career outside of politics.  No PM has ever retired to the Senate before, and with his throwing all senators out of the Liberal caucus it would make it hard to appoint him now.

And for Freeland, we always have to ask - how's her French?  I understand she is conversant in Ukrainian and Russian, and googling says she speaks French and Italian as well, but how fluent is she?  And she's actually older than Trudeau by 3 years.

[Oexmelin]

I don't see Trudeau not running except if he's being pushed out by the Libs.

Freeland's French is not fluid, but it's enough to accept long interviews in French, understand the question, and give articulate answers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVjz3mg2ZQM

[Grey Fox]

Chantal Hébert was saying that, basically on the basis that this crisis is draining.

I would say Freeland's fluency is on part with mid to late-1st mandate Harper. She has a lot more vocabulary than Harper tho. She will usually break down after 2-5 minutes of french talking.

[crazy canuck]

I don't see Trudeau not running except if he's being pushed out by the Libs.

Freeland's French is not fluid, but it's enough to accept long interviews in French, understand the question, and give articulate answers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVjz3mg2ZQM

I agree, but there are some smart able people in that caucus who may be able to convince him it is better to take a walk now and assure the Liberal party of winning the next election.  Realistically the only thing the can jeopardize that result is Trudeau.

[crazy canuck]

Chantal Hébert was saying that, basically on the basis that this crisis is draining.

I would say Freeland's fluency is on part with mid to late-1st mandate Harper. She has a lot more vocabulary than Harper tho. She will usually break down after 2-5 minutes of french talking.

I enjoy listening to/reading her opinions.  I also follow her on twitter, but unfortunately I cannot read all of what she writes because of my linguistic deficiency 

This isn't the reference to the comment you referred to but to a similar effect:

https://22163.mc.tritondigital.com/CBC_CBC_NEWS_AT_ISSUE_P/media-session/e4f5974f-5fa4-46ea-9c85-b57122facc20/atissue-W8fgStPY-20200709.mp3


at about the 5 minute mark.  "Anyone of competence would have recused themselves...." 


At 7:00 she says it weakens Trudeau's position within the party.

[Barrister]

I don't see Trudeau not running except if he's being pushed out by the Libs.

Freeland's French is not fluid, but it's enough to accept long interviews in French, understand the question, and give articulate answers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVjz3mg2ZQM

I agree, but there are some smart able people in that caucus who may be able to convince him it is better to take a walk now and assure the Liberal party of winning the next election.  Realistically the only thing the can jeopardize that result is Trudeau.

I don't know if Liberals see it that way.

Remember the Libs were in third place when Trudeau showed up.  They seemed like a spent force, but he brought them into power.  He's already survived not only the blackface scandal, but the more serious conflict of interest with SNC Lavalin.

I know you're impressed with Freeland - but would she necessarily win a leadership election?

[Grey Fox]

I enjoy listening to/reading her opinions.  I also follow her on twitter, but unfortunately I cannot read all of what she writes because of my linguistic deficiency 

I understand all of her accents & I having trouble keeping up with all her opinion pieces. Thankfully, she usually says the same thing in french & english.

It's not recent, I think saw her say that on TV back in April.