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Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

Started by mongers, August 06, 2014, 03:12:53 PM

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The Brain

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The Minsky Moment

Quote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.


The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: The Brain on Today at 09:42:20 AMFriends like these...

Ukraine has become another chew toy in the Trumpist culture wars.  I'm hopeful Biden is returned and the Dems flip the house, and large scale aid flows back in. But if it goes the other way, Europe is on its own.  American cannot be counted on.  I don't like it, but that's the way it is now.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Barrister

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:18:27 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.


The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.


I read an analysis that the attacks on oil infrastructure aren't really meant to deprive Russia of oil - but rather to deprive Russia of the feedstocks for explosives (which are derived and refined from oil).
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

The Minsky Moment

It may be that my take on this issue is influenced by the fact that I recently read Robert Pape's Bombing to Win, the upshot of which is that most strategic bombing campaign aimed at civilian or war industry failed, even given much greater resources than Ukraine has.  Even with total air supremacy and massive bomber fleets it is extremely hard to cause enduring shortages of key materials in a well-resourced continental sized country. 

The best that can be said about these attacks is that the cost ratio is probably pretty favorable if only cheap drones are being used. It's also probably good for Ukrainian morale and I concede that is important.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Zoupa

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on Today at 10:18:27 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on Today at 09:33:00 AMInstead they've switched to make the war as costly as possible to russia. The Black Sea fleet is decimated, Belgorod is getting bombed daily, your refineries are on fire: leave Ukraine and it stops. Either that or general collapse/civil war in russia.


The Black Sea fleet attacks have had strategic value because it's taken away the fleet as a weapon and allowed Ukraine some freedom of action economically.

More generally, however, Ukraine simply doesn't have the means to execute a punishment strategy anywhere near sufficient for that to be effective, assuming that such a strategy had any hope of success even if means were far greater.  Putin has sent hundreds of thousands of young men to their death and murdered the leading opposition leader and Russians meekly accepted his recoronation.  Thinking that adding some kopecks to gasoline prices is going to move the needle to wishful thinking.


Death of a thousand cuts. It's all Ukraine can do since we don't care.