Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

But it's also worth pointing out that Merkel didn't blame the Baltics and Poland. We don't need to manufacture conflict and bad faith where it doesn't exist. Plenty of it occurs naturally to meet our needs.

I'm not sure I agree. He is very anti-Merkel but this is Toomas Ilves' (former Estonian President's) response to the "well actually that's not what she said" point:

Yes and no. She had no plan for creating a common EU policy on Russia when an FT leak revealed she and Macron wanted a mandate *the following day* at the EU council to go talk to Putin ("Biden did it, why can't we?")

There was no intention to discuss a policy with EU members, just a carte blanche to go off and talk to Putin.

After the suck-ups to Russia of Minsk(s), there was no way CEE would let her go off like that.

So now we are responsible, right?

I think this is a slight lived experience. What she said may be factually correct and may one meaning from her perspective both at the time and since. She was Chancellor of Germany so the most important voice in any room in Europe, the West's point-person with Putin etc. The experience of what she was pushing for in that room, with that baggage (Nordstream 2, 2008, 2014) may have been quite different for leaders from CEE countries. And how that interaction is subsequently interpreted may also be true.

I don't think that's a bad faith read by CEE politicians, I think it's a product of their experience working with Merkel for two decades. Her experience is obviously going to be different (as will Macron's, for whom I think it was about a sense of humiliation and frustration that Biden and Putin met to discuss Europe). But again the context of there I think is lost trust and different perceptions of risk and threat.

I think this trails right into the invasion and at the point when the Balts and the Poles are some of the first to army Ukraine, the first response of the Elysee and Chanchellery is to see if there is any possibility of re-launching the Minsk process. The set of experiences that led to those different responses also shaped how those actors perceived the event Merkel's describing and have responded to her recollection of it.

[Zoupa]

Thankfully for Merkel, the bar for worst German chancellor is absurdly high.

She should really just stfu and disappear.

[Sheilbh]

Sure but, much like Kamala Harris, she does have a book to sell

Incidentally I don't think it's for nothing that the controversy and these remarks came in the Hungarian phase of her book tour, in terms of the questions and framing of things.

[The Brain]

Her Big Coal agenda wasn't awesome.

[Duque de Bragança]

Thankfully for Merkel, the bar for worst German chancellor is absurdly high.

She should really just stfu and disappear.

You mean like Schröder?
Oh, wait...

[Tamas]

https://news.err.ee/1609827133/estonia-s-border-guard-armed-russian-groups-seen-in-saatse-boot


I am thinking Putin needs to further squeeze living standards and also maybe looking for another round of mobilisation, this is why he is having his people heavily look to provoke an incident with NATO, so he can have an excuse.

I am kind of hoping European leaders have data to reach the same conclusion and that's why their responses are so limp.

[Josquius]

What an amazingly stupid and petty stretch of Russian territory

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Surely little green men will get shot on sight this time round given that they've got no affiliation.

[Tamas]

This is what I mean. They want an incident where they stop some Estonian car going through and there is an incident. Putin can announce rationing of fuel and mbolisiation or reserves in response to imminent nato attack.

[crazy canuck]

https://news.err.ee/1609827133/estonia-s-border-guard-armed-russian-groups-seen-in-saatse-boot


I am thinking Putin needs to further squeeze living standards and also maybe looking for another round of mobilisation, this is why he is having his people heavily look to provoke an incident with NATO, so he can have an excuse.

I am kind of hoping European leaders have data to reach the same conclusion and that's why their responses are so limp.

I am willing to bet the Estonians are more knowledgeable about what is happening than even you.

[Tamas]

Do you think that is conceiveable?!

Seriously what kind of a comment is that, if we are only allowed to comment on speculate on things that we have the most detailed understanding of of anyone on the planet, there won't be much left to discuss.

[crazy canuck]

Do you think that is conceiveable?!

Seriously what kind of a comment is that, if we are only allowed to comment on speculate on things that we have the most detailed understanding of of anyone on the planet, there won't be much left to discuss.

You said you hoped they have data to reach the same conclusion. 

[Tamas]

Perhaps it was an awkward phrasing of it. What I meant was that I am hoping I am right, and this is why European response has been extremely muted.