Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Labour briefing that they have lost to the Greens so we shall see.

No idea if this will play out but one journalist says people he's been speaking to at the count are reporting that the Greens look like they've significantly outperformed Labour in areas where it's a Labour-Green fight, while Reform have outperformed where it's a Reform-Labour fight. So possibly the worst of both worlds for Labour.

But also really, really impressive turnout for this seat (which is relatively low turnout) - it's basically the same as at the general election which is unusual for a byelection (particularly in winter).

Edit: And Reform, who have no expectations management, are also briefing they've definitely beat Labour to second: "it's not even close". I think Greens first and Reform second plus a poor Labour performance is the nightmare for them.

I've mentioned before but the constituency is a bit of a weird mix. Basically a third is broadly white working class/Red Wall sort of area where there'd be a Reform-Labour fight, and the other two thirds include a lot of students from the university and also a large Muslim community. So it's a weird seat in a lot of ways but one that basically includes all of Labour's coalition - and it sounds like they've done poorly everywhere and with everyone

[garbon]

So did the Greens decide the Soviets were correct and that "Zionism is racism"?

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-green-zack-polanski-zionism-is-racism-motion/

[garbon]

I guess with Modi, the Greens sought prior Labour inspiration?

This popped up in discussions when I Google image searched the green image for more background.

[garbon]

The Starmer plan?

[HVC]

The Green Party? Jeez how screwed is the UK?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ah, seems like submitting to the mosques has worked out then.

[Valmy]

The Green Party? Jeez how screwed is the UK?

Labour is fucking up.

They need to do something about their left flank.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The Green candidate is/was a plumber with a working class background; she made comments about how working hard doesn't work any more as most of the money is siphoned off by assorted rentiers, landlords and billionaires. I reckon that she will have cleaned up on the lefty vote.

[garbon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp8rjk02r0jt?post=asset%3A987efb98-a9ae-4094-98bf-b13265336e25#post

Reform UK chair David Bull is the latest political figure to react to claims made overnight by election monitoring group Democracy Volunteers that they witnessed so-called family voting during the Gorton and Denton by-election (see our last post for more details).

Bull tells Radio 4's Today programme that family voting - where a family member is seen to be influencing somebody else's vote - is "illegal" and "should be stamped out".

When asked if he beleives this changed the outcome of the by-election result, he says: "If I'm being candid probably not."

"I think it's really important that we stand back and look at all of this with cool, clear heads. We've all been up all night, and so any rash decision would be a bad decision, in my humble opinion."

Looking ahead to the May local elections, Bull says Reform are expecting to do "extremely well", and anticipate "a turquoise sea" of wins across the country.

[Norgy]

Turnout of less than 50 percent of voters?

That's rather poor, unless the voting was solely in the same time slot as "Traitor UK" or something.

Yet I am sure those who did not vote will make themselves heard on their social media platforms.
Why people here who normally lambast the GOP get worked up by a rather harmless Green Party in the UK beating Reform is hard to understand, though. Because some Muslims vote Green?
Immigrants, whether first-, second-, third or whatever generation have rights. Live with it. This is the democracy you want. With people you dislike and like.

[Sheilbh]

I guess with Modi, the Greens sought prior Labour inspiration?

Yep - and the Tories have form for this too. Zac Goldsmith's campaign for Mayor had similarly sectarian dog-whistley leaflets targeting Hindus and I think that has only increased as the Hindu British Indian vote has swung more Tory in recent years.

Although it is all very local. There was a really blatant (and unsuccessful) example with Marco Longhi at the last election. He was a Tory MP and I think he's now moved to Reform (and I just checked - apparently President of Turning Point UK - a true cornucopia of delights in his career). But he was a Dudley which has a fairly big British Pakistani population. In the last election he had a leaflet go out about him being part of the Friends of Kashmir APPG and asking questions about Kashmir etc and asking if his opponenet "Sonia KUMAR" (his emphasis) would be a good MP on Kashmir given her subtly flagged Hindu name.

It's a little bit like Bull's comments on the family voting which I think are actually true in that I think it probably happened but didn't matter. There's been reporting for many, many years of family and bloc voting particularly in some South Asian communities, so particularly in the North-West, Leicester and the West Midlands (I think Bradford has a particular reputation). There's been particular concerns in the past about postal ballots and family/bloc voting but because all our MPs are actually terminally online Americans they're obsessed with voter IDs instead (on Bradford I swear I remember a BBC report a few years ago about people basically passing their postal ballots to the local "boss" to handle and he was backing George Galloway).

But the Greens won big so I don't think it really mattered. My understanding is the bloc vote/"community leader" machine politics in certain communities is, I think, more of a traditional Labour thing (George Galloway is also an expert at it), but I think one of the Gaza Independent MPs made a really good point that actually this vote is possible more of rejection of that. So when I saw those reports last night, plus a lot of people saying it might come down to Labour postal ballot operation - my assumption was that it would be good for Labour. In part I think last night and the move to the Greens (and the Gaza Independents before them) is about British Muslims, particularly the young, rejecting the old Labour Party machine politics. In a way I think becoming more engaged in the democratic process.

Labour is fucking up.

They need to do something about their left flank.

That would be a far easier problem to solve - I think one commentator (who I read on the constituency profile which was spot on) basically said Labour look like they're in the "electoral valley of death". As he put it "Green win over Reform with Lab 3rd - is the nightmare scenario for the incumbent govt. They have fallen into the electoral Valley of Death. Rejected in the centre. Rejected on the right. And now rejected on the left." Or to put it in terms of demographics - in 2024 Labour performed worst in seats with a significnat Muslim community that swing against Labour is continuing but also they're losing the Red Wall voters they won back in 2024, they're losing young student and graduate heavy voters. If they're not the party of the white working class, or younger urban seats with students and graduates, or (increasingly) minority communities - I'm literally not sure who is left in Labour's coalition? Who are they for?

It's been a really poor government and it is difficult to overstate how unpopular Starmer is and how quickly he became unpopular. He isn't up to it. It doesn't matter if they pitch left or right - if they don't change the leader and don't actually have an agenda it'll just get worse. I'd add all Labour needed to do to win the seat was let Andy Burnham won but that would represent a challenge to the leadership so couldn't be allowed.

And the May elections could be really really bad. It looks like in both Scotland and Wales Reform will come second and push Labour into fourth (or lower). But there's local elections in lots of England including lots of areas the Greens will be targeting (my borough's council elections are up for example where I'd expect a strong Green showing). And local councillors are the bedrock of any political party so if the Greens do well they'll be in a really strong position. There's a few areas Reform will fancy too so again that electoral valley of death

FWIW and I don't think this is just a Muslim thing - I think Gaza has had a profound and deep impact on British politics, with Labour perhaps particularly exposed. I think it is the equivalent of the small boats for a different constituency (as I say very much not just Muslims) - in that it's one of those issues that is easy to contextualise or point to bigger issues etc but that sort of misses the point of how deeply people feel about it and what it signifies beyond the issue itself.

Turnout of less than 50 percent of voters?

That's rather poor, unless the voting was solely in the same time slot as "Traitor UK" or something.

It's pretty good for that constituency. I think turnout was about 48% in the general election and it was 47% for a byelection which is very, very impresive. Turnout for byelections are often around 30%. I think in this one it really helped that you had three mass parties in Reform, Greens and Labour flooding it with activists.

I agree it's not great generally. But again demographics is relevant here. Broadly speaking the constituencies with high turn out are older, whiter and more affluent (so Winchester or Wimbledon have turnout in the 70s) - and this is a constituency with a big student population, large minority community and a white working class area. I think lowest turnout in general elections tends to be around 40% in some parts of Hull, Leeds, Manchester - this isn't right at the bottom but I'd guess it's at the bottom 50 or so seats.