Canada Election 2021

[viper37]

Hmmm...what do you make of this? Shades of the U.S. election. mail in ballots may not be counted until Tuesday

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vote-counting-elections-canada-2021-1.6179742

In some ridings, it may be hard to know who's won by the end of the evening, but it is unlikely to affect the national result.  The election is decided in the east, after all, well before we finalize BC and Alberta's results.

[crazy canuck]

Hmmm...what do you make of this? Shades of the U.S. election. mail in ballots may not be counted until Tuesday

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vote-counting-elections-canada-2021-1.6179742

In some ridings, it may be hard to know who's won by the end of the evening, but it is unlikely to affect the national result.  The election is decided in the east, after all, well before we finalize BC and Alberta's results.

Do you think there will be a sufficient margin before polls close in the West for one party to claim victory - I doubt that will occur this election.

[viper37]

Hmmm...what do you make of this? Shades of the U.S. election. mail in ballots may not be counted until Tuesday

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vote-counting-elections-canada-2021-1.6179742

In some ridings, it may be hard to know who's won by the end of the evening, but it is unlikely to affect the national result.  The election is decided in the east, after all, well before we finalize BC and Alberta's results.

Do you think there will be a sufficient margin before polls close in the West for one party to claim victory - I doubt that will occur this election.

We'll see tonight.  Might not be able to vote, after all.  Stupid meeting tonight that risk going late in the night.  I much prefer these sessions when there's NHL hockey on tv, the councilors have a vetted interest in making things get over quickly.

[Barrister]

Two separate Facebook friends of mine (both old fraternity brothers) have posted about supporting the PPC.

[Josephus]

Hmmm...what do you make of this? Shades of the U.S. election. mail in ballots may not be counted until Tuesday

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/vote-counting-elections-canada-2021-1.6179742

In some ridings, it may be hard to know who's won by the end of the evening, but it is unlikely to affect the national result.  The election is decided in the east, after all, well before we finalize BC and Alberta's results.

Yeah but there's quite a few close ridings in the east, and with up to possibly a million mail-ins, and with the vote so close, it might be tough to call this one before Wednesday. We'll see.

[crazy canuck]

I much prefer these sessions when there's NHL hockey on tv, the councilors have a vetted interest in making things get over quickly.

[Jacob]

Latest 338 poll shows Liberals and Conservatives neck in neck in percentage votes, with the Liberals getting 4 more seats than the Conservatives. This is gonna be a close one, folks.

Interesting. The CBC aggregate tracker agrees that the Libs and Cons are neck and neck in percentages (31.5% vs 30.0%), but for seats they project 155 vs 119, and 32 NDP (though "likely" ranges of 121-168, 105 - 143, and 24 - 48 respectively).

It'll be interesting to see which one is closer, 338 or the CBC.

[Jacob]

Two separate Facebook friends of mine (both old fraternity brothers) have posted about supporting the PPC.

That has to be frustrating.

I wonder to what extent the PPC vote is driven by vacccine and lock-down frustration compared to other issues.

[Barrister]

Two separate Facebook friends of mine (both old fraternity brothers) have posted about supporting the PPC.

That has to be frustrating.

I wonder to what extent the PPC vote is driven by vacccine and lock-down frustration compared to other issues.

Almost 100%.


In other words, the Conservatives put out a Facebook message touting all the endorsements they've received.  Pretty standard stuff really.



But what they don't tell you is that every single one of those newspapers is owned by the same company, Postmedia.

[Jacob]

In some ridings, it may be hard to know who's won by the end of the evening, but it is unlikely to affect the national result.  The election is decided in the east, after all, well before we finalize BC and Alberta's results.

Given the current distributions, it's possible that the BC results are what determines the shape of the government. If the Libs get close to a majority, it could be BC results that put them over the hump (or not). Similarly, it's possible BC determines whether the Libs can only reach a majority with the NDP, another where they could have a choice between the BQ and NDP, and another where they'll need both.

... or maybe the election will be determined before the BC votes are tallied, as usual

[Barrister]

... or maybe the election will be determined before the BC votes are tallied, as usual

I certainly remember as a kid, and even into my 20s or 30s turning on the election results before a single ballot in western Canada had been counted, only to find that the winner had already been announced.

But they "fixed" that a couple of elections ago.  Now the polls close from Quebec all the way to Alberta all at the same time - 9:30 EDT, 7:30 MDT.  Polls in BC then close just 30 minutes later at 7pm PDT.  There won't really be meaningful results from the bulk of the country in just 30 minutes.

[crazy canuck]

... or maybe the election will be determined before the BC votes are tallied, as usual

I certainly remember as a kid, and even into my 20s or 30s turning on the election results before a single ballot in western Canada had been counted, only to find that the winner had already been announced.

But they "fixed" that a couple of elections ago.  Now the polls close from Quebec all the way to Alberta all at the same time - 9:30 EDT, 7:30 MDT.  Polls in BC then close just 30 minutes later at 7pm PDT.  There won't really be meaningful results from the bulk of the country in just 30 minutes.

I think your memory is faulty.  When you were in your 20s and 30s you could not turn on the election results prior to the close of polls in the West because those were blocked.  There was one election where that did not happen and viewers in the West could see the results coming in from the East.  But that was a one off owing to the fact that the constitutional challenge was successful at the BCSC but had not yet been overturned by the appellate court and then the SCC on a 5/4 split.  Now it happens because the legislation was changed and the blackout is no longer in effect.

Note that it was not the time shift that changed - they were essentially the same during the constitutional challenge.  What changed is the ban on showing results where the polling has not closed was removed.

[Barrister]

... or maybe the election will be determined before the BC votes are tallied, as usual

I certainly remember as a kid, and even into my 20s or 30s turning on the election results before a single ballot in western Canada had been counted, only to find that the winner had already been announced.

But they "fixed" that a couple of elections ago.  Now the polls close from Quebec all the way to Alberta all at the same time - 9:30 EDT, 7:30 MDT.  Polls in BC then close just 30 minutes later at 7pm PDT.  There won't really be meaningful results from the bulk of the country in just 30 minutes.

I think your memory is faulty.  When you were in your 20s and 30s you could not turn on the election results prior to the close of polls in the West because those were blocked.  There was one election where that did not happen and viewers in the West could see the results coming in from the East.  But that was a one off owing to the fact that the constitutional challenge was successful at the BCSC but had not yet been overturned by the appellate court and then the SCC on a 5/4 split.  Now it happens because the legislation was changed and the blackout is no longer in effect.

Note that it was not the time shift that changed - they were essentially the same during the constitutional challenge.  What changed is the ban on showing results where the polling has not closed was removed.

My memory is just fine CC.

You are correct that results were blocked.  But if the polls closed at say 8pm, you'd turn on the TV at 8:01 to find that a winner had already been declared in some elections.

[crazy canuck]

... or maybe the election will be determined before the BC votes are tallied, as usual

I certainly remember as a kid, and even into my 20s or 30s turning on the election results before a single ballot in western Canada had been counted, only to find that the winner had already been announced.

But they "fixed" that a couple of elections ago.  Now the polls close from Quebec all the way to Alberta all at the same time - 9:30 EDT, 7:30 MDT.  Polls in BC then close just 30 minutes later at 7pm PDT.  There won't really be meaningful results from the bulk of the country in just 30 minutes.

I think your memory is faulty.  When you were in your 20s and 30s you could not turn on the election results prior to the close of polls in the West because those were blocked.  There was one election where that did not happen and viewers in the West could see the results coming in from the East.  But that was a one off owing to the fact that the constitutional challenge was successful at the BCSC but had not yet been overturned by the appellate court and then the SCC on a 5/4 split.  Now it happens because the legislation was changed and the blackout is no longer in effect.

Note that it was not the time shift that changed - they were essentially the same during the constitutional challenge.  What changed is the ban on showing results where the polling has not closed was removed.

My memory is just fine CC.

You are correct that results were blocked.  But if the polls closed at say 8pm, you'd turn on the TV at 8:01 to find that a winner had already been declared in some elections.

Again that would not have occurred in your 30s. The vote stagger was in place by then.  It was put in place to deal with the very phenomenon you are talking about.  In your 30s there was a 30 minute window between polls closing in Alberta and those in Quebec and Ontario.  So unless those provinces had extreme vote counting speedsters, voters in those provinces would not even know the results before the polls closed in Alberta. 

[crazy canuck]

Voting was quick and easy.  But because of COVID the polling station was moved from a spacious school gym to a cramped church.  I am not sure that is the right decision - felt sorry for all those election workers jammed into that small space.