Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

Started by Syt, January 18, 2020, 09:36:09 AM

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PDH

Ever since Jimmy Carter was attacked by cursed rabbit the country has been in the shitter.
I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

-------
"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM

alfred russel

Quote from: DGuller on June 30, 2020, 01:53:09 PM
Speaking of incompetent, I've refreshed my numbers again, and even the good states are now looking poised to not be good.  New York and New Jersey both officially flattened out, much sooner than I thought they would, and poised to re-enter the growth area.  That means that infections right now are a steady trickle, and probably would be ramping up soon.  Pretty much all of the Midwestern already crossed the neutral line, and are now back into exponential growth. 

It used to be a couple of weeks ago that the southern states were bad but the northern states were on an improving trajectory, but now the bad states have become dire and the improving states have or are about to retrench.  This is pretty grim.  :(

So my hope was that:

1) massive increase in cases would not be linked to serious cases because they would be concentrated in the healthy and young,
2) if hospitalizations pick up, hopefully it will be because of admission standards, and not people about to die.

Georgia just published its hospitalization numbers, and they are up over 7% from the day before.

Basically the all time high was 1,500, we fell to about half that, and now we are skyrocketing back up--will probably set an all time high tomorrow--today was 1,459. Hoping those admission standards are really lax these days...
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

fromtia

Quote from: alfred russel on June 30, 2020, 04:41:25 PM

Georgia just published its hospitalization numbers, and they are up over 7% from the day before.

Basically the all time high was 1,500, we fell to about half that, and now we are skyrocketing back up--will probably set an all time high tomorrow--today was 1,459. Hoping those admission standards are really lax these days...

Hospitalization rates are the metric I'm following in Florida, clutching determinedly at the straw that I dont yet understand fully what's going to happen next, I only think I do. Perhaps Governor DeSantis is right, this rising infection rate is all young people and immigrants and they wont get too terribly sick.
"Just be nice" - James Dalton, Roadhouse.

fromtia

It's especially disturbing that this pandemic is playing out more or less like epidemiologists said it would. If we had taken this a bit more seriously at the beginning we wouldn't be approaching the station that we appear to be approaching right now. I cant shake the conviction that conservative media has to be saddled with the blame for this, at least in part. All criticisms of the more mainstream outlets sensationalism aside, it's hard to get people to unhear the falsehood that "it's just the flu" or that it's a hoax of some kind, a media panic. Tough to put that nonsense back in the box and pretend you didn't say it.
"Just be nice" - James Dalton, Roadhouse.

mongers

Devastating testimony by Dr Fauci before the US senate committee:

Quote
Coronavirus: Fauci warns of 100,000 US cases per day

Top disease researcher Dr Anthony Fauci has told the US Senate that he "would not be surprised" if new virus cases in the country reach 100,000 per day.
"Clearly we are not in control right now," he testified, warning that not enough Americans are wearing masks or social distancing.
.....

full article here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53237824

Also this is an interesting insight:
Quote

Dr Fauci warned on Monday that the US is "unlikely" to develop herd immunity to the coronavirus even once a vaccine is available, which he earlier predicted could be available by early 2021.
He said this was due to the combination of a vaccine that is potentially only partially effective, and the large number of Americans who might refuse to get it.

"There is a general anti-science, anti-authority, anti-vaccine feeling among some people in this country - an alarmingly large percentage of people, relatively speaking," he said, calling for more education to promote confidence in vaccines.
Dr Fauci added that he would gladly "settle" for a vaccine that is only 70% to 75% effective at first.

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

alfred russel

Quote from: fromtia on June 30, 2020, 05:00:23 PM
It's especially disturbing that this pandemic is playing out more or less like epidemiologists said it would. If we had taken this a bit more seriously at the beginning we wouldn't be approaching the station that we appear to be approaching right now. I cant shake the conviction that conservative media has to be saddled with the blame for this, at least in part. All criticisms of the more mainstream outlets sensationalism aside, it's hard to get people to unhear the falsehood that "it's just the flu" or that it's a hoax of some kind, a media panic. Tough to put that nonsense back in the box and pretend you didn't say it.

It definitely has had an element of a media panic. I go back a couple months and quote posts with fatality rates, hospitalization rates, and future predictions that were dramatically off base. Maybe those posters were themselves twisting reality to try to stoke panic, but I think they were regurgitating panic picked up from the media.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

Eddie Teach

I went to Costco today and everyone was wearing masks- because they had to. I think it would be good for other stores to follow suit. Some people have to be dragged kicking and screaming.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

mongers

Quote from: Eddie Teach on June 30, 2020, 06:51:04 PM
I went to Costco today and everyone was wearing masks- because they had to. I think it would be good for other stores to follow suit. Some people have to be dragged kicking and screaming.

:yes:
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Sheilbh

Quote from: Eddie Teach on June 30, 2020, 06:51:04 PM
I went to Costco today and everyone was wearing masks- because they had to. I think it would be good for other stores to follow suit. Some people have to be dragged kicking and screaming.
Yeah. Sadiq Khan's said that it needs to happen. I mentioned before but quite a lot of people wore masks at the peak, but almost no-one does now.

And the government/public health line is still very much that they're not really necessary but don't do any harm - much as I really like him the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Jonathan van Tam has been particularly forceful about them not really being that useful. I think they need to be communicating that they are effective and we should all be wearing them, and I think ministers should be wearing them when they're doing public events.
Let's bomb Russia!

DGuller

Quote from: alfred russel on June 30, 2020, 04:41:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on June 30, 2020, 01:53:09 PM
Speaking of incompetent, I've refreshed my numbers again, and even the good states are now looking poised to not be good.  New York and New Jersey both officially flattened out, much sooner than I thought they would, and poised to re-enter the growth area.  That means that infections right now are a steady trickle, and probably would be ramping up soon.  Pretty much all of the Midwestern already crossed the neutral line, and are now back into exponential growth. 

It used to be a couple of weeks ago that the southern states were bad but the northern states were on an improving trajectory, but now the bad states have become dire and the improving states have or are about to retrench.  This is pretty grim.  :(

So my hope was that:

1) massive increase in cases would not be linked to serious cases because they would be concentrated in the healthy and young,
2) if hospitalizations pick up, hopefully it will be because of admission standards, and not people about to die.

Georgia just published its hospitalization numbers, and they are up over 7% from the day before.

Basically the all time high was 1,500, we fell to about half that, and now we are skyrocketing back up--will probably set an all time high tomorrow--today was 1,459. Hoping those admission standards are really lax these days...
If anything, I think that with time hospitalizations were increasingly discouraged, at least here in the NYC area.  I suspect part of the reason is that it was even money whether hospitals would bring you back from the brink or finish you off.  I think staying home with a thermometer, pulse oximeter, Tylenol, and a doctor a phone call away is now understood to be the way to go for majority of people.  Speaking of that, I ordered pulse oximeter just now, just to be on the safe side in case the second wave gets me.  :ph34r:

Zoupa

Quote from: alfred russel on June 30, 2020, 06:27:29 PM
Quote from: fromtia on June 30, 2020, 05:00:23 PM
It's especially disturbing that this pandemic is playing out more or less like epidemiologists said it would. If we had taken this a bit more seriously at the beginning we wouldn't be approaching the station that we appear to be approaching right now. I cant shake the conviction that conservative media has to be saddled with the blame for this, at least in part. All criticisms of the more mainstream outlets sensationalism aside, it's hard to get people to unhear the falsehood that "it's just the flu" or that it's a hoax of some kind, a media panic. Tough to put that nonsense back in the box and pretend you didn't say it.

It definitely has had an element of a media panic. I go back a couple months and quote posts with fatality rates, hospitalization rates, and future predictions that were dramatically off base. Maybe those posters were themselves twisting reality to try to stoke panic, but I think they were regurgitating panic picked up from the media.

What you needed was more panic, not less. Maybe that wildfire would have been stamped out then, saving countless lives and life-long complications. Of course that's all out the window now, since you're headed for Milan at light-speed.

Eddie Teach

To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Razgovory

Quote from: Eddie Teach on June 30, 2020, 08:55:43 PM
Panic isn't sustainable.


This is true.  We don't need a panicky public.  That often leads in stupid directions, such as blaming cell phone towers. What we need is a public educated on the dangers and willing to be inconvenienced to protect their lives and the lives of other people.

I don't expect that to happen any time soon.  I fear we will simply get used to a lower life expectancy.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Oexmelin

Quote from: Razgovory on June 30, 2020, 11:07:40 PM
I don't expect that to happen any time soon.  I fear we will simply get used to a lower life expectancy.

'No Way To Prevent This,' Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens"
Que le grand cric me croque !

Razgovory

I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017