Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

Started by Syt, January 18, 2020, 09:36:09 AM

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Zoupa

Quote from: alfred russel on July 03, 2020, 08:44:50 AM
Quote from: Zoupa on July 02, 2020, 05:50:36 PM
Don't worry. It's all media panic anyways.

Zoupa, sorry bud, but we are at an all time high in hospitalizations. That is reality.

:mellow: ok?

Glad you finally see the light I guess?

The Larch

QuoteNEW: 'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirus.

alfred russel

Quote from: Zoupa on July 03, 2020, 06:47:57 PM

:mellow: ok?

Glad you finally see the light I guess?

Zoupa, I've always said since the beginning that the mortality rate may be up to 1%. If something with that level of mortality runs its course through the population - say 60-70%, that is a fuckton of people that die. I've never said otherwise.

People that insisted that the mortality rate is up around 4%, or that 14% of infected younger people were going to need hospitalization, or that bird watchers were somehow disastrous, or that millions of american children were going to die...

I mean, in March there was almost no coronavirus here but everyone was scared and locked down. Now people have collectively stopped giving a fuck. There is more coronavirus than ever before - if we ever were to be cautious this is the time. I'm at a lake in South Carolina--the place is jamming as much as it ever has for a 4th of July weekend. I was at a restaurant and there was a crowd waiting to get in, every table was occupied, the bar was jammed, and not a single person was wearing  a mask. If you want me to dig up posts where I said this is what would happen back in March, April and May, I'll do it for you.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

viper37

Quote from: alfred russel on July 03, 2020, 08:08:51 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on July 03, 2020, 06:47:57 PM

:mellow: ok?

Glad you finally see the light I guess?

Zoupa, I've always said since the beginning that the mortality rate may be up to 1%. If something with that level of mortality runs its course through the population - say 60-70%, that is a fuckton of people that die. I've never said otherwise.

People that insisted that the mortality rate is up around 4%, or that 14% of infected younger people were going to need hospitalization, or that bird watchers were somehow disastrous, or that millions of american children were going to die...
It gets higher than 1%, and closer to 4-7% when the hospitals become overwhelmed.

However, we do have two new remedies that Italy did not, Remdesivir and some steroid (I can't remember the name), and these remedies shorten the time needed on ventilation for critical cases.  That frees rooms faster and enable hospitals to treat more people than earlier in the spring.

So, yeah, reaching Italy's 7% death toll is highly unlikely.  However, with so many sick people, there's a lot of contagion going on and it's unlikely that hospitals will be able to cope with all the critical cases.  Then, there will be avoidable deaths, from covid-19 and other diseases.  As long as there is room, people who aren't exactly critical can get under a ventilator, but once there's no more, choices are being made.  An entire generation will be sacrificed.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

DGuller

The death rate is most certainly not 4-7%.  Dividing deaths by confirmed cases doesn't really give you a death rate.  All good estimates of death rate point to 1%, and hopefully it's less now that we know something about not killing Covid patients.

Zoupa

Quote from: alfred russel on July 03, 2020, 08:08:51 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on July 03, 2020, 06:47:57 PM

:mellow: ok?

Glad you finally see the light I guess?

Zoupa, I've always said since the beginning that the mortality rate may be up to 1%. If something with that level of mortality runs its course through the population - say 60-70%, that is a fuckton of people that die. I've never said otherwise.

People that insisted that the mortality rate is up around 4%, or that 14% of infected younger people were going to need hospitalization, or that bird watchers were somehow disastrous, or that millions of american children were going to die...

I mean, in March there was almost no coronavirus here but everyone was scared and locked down. Now people have collectively stopped giving a fuck. There is more coronavirus than ever before - if we ever were to be cautious this is the time. I'm at a lake in South Carolina--the place is jamming as much as it ever has for a 4th of July weekend. I was at a restaurant and there was a crowd waiting to get in, every table was occupied, the bar was jammed, and not a single person was wearing  a mask. If you want me to dig up posts where I said this is what would happen back in March, April and May, I'll do it for you.

You know you don't have to type the name of the poster you're replying to every time right? It's already apparent since you're quoting me.

But anyways, if you want to roll the dice on your health, go right ahead. Y'all have decided that putting on a mask for a couple of weeks is way too hard, so enjoy your scarred lungs, amputated digits/limbs, fucked up pancreas etc etc  ad nauseam.

I'll never understand so I'm done trying.

Iormlund

I find it really hard to wrap my head around the mask backlash.

I've been wearing mask AND shield at work for 3 months. Does it suck? Sure. Is it a big deal? Not really. It seems to me it's a small price to pay to keep people safe and the economy going.

celedhring

Quote from: Iormlund on July 04, 2020, 01:53:20 AM
I find it really hard to wrap my head around the mask backlash.

I've been wearing mask AND shield at work for 3 months. Does it suck? Sure. Is it a big deal? Not really. It seems to me it's a small price to pay to keep people safe and the economy going.

The fact that wearing a mask has become such a political fault line in the US completely boggles my mind.

celedhring

AI-14 in some of the Catalan border areas with Aragon has reached 140 per 100,000. This is actually higher than when the national lockdown was first decreed back in mid-march. So far, the regional government (after the end of the national lockdown, public health has gone back to the regions) refuses to apply restrictions, claiming that the outbreak is contained. The outbreaks are centered mostly around farms and food processing plants, and shutting them down would be problematic given they're the basis of that region's economy (together with tourism) and wer'e right in the middle of harvest season. Nonetheless, the decision is controversial and one of the members of the Covid advisory committe to the regional government has broken ranks and taken to twitter to ask that the area is locked down. The Catalan government isn't budging but they have already deployed a field hospital in the area's capital (Lleida).

These same guys were criticizing Madrid for being too lax when it was the central government calling the shots  :rolleyes:

Tamas

Quote from: celedhring on July 04, 2020, 02:02:33 AM
AI-14 in some of the Catalan border areas with Aragon has reached 140 per 100,000. This is actually higher than when the national lockdown was first decreed back in mid-march. So far, the regional government (after the end of the national lockdown, public health has gone back to the regions) refuses to apply restrictions, claiming that the outbreak is contained. The outbreaks are centered mostly around farms and food processing plants, and shutting them down would be problematic given they're the basis of that region's economy (together with tourism) and wer'e right in the middle of harvest season. Nonetheless, the decision is controversial and one of the members of the Covid advisory committe to the regional government has broken ranks and taken to twitter to ask that the area is locked down. The Catalan government isn't budging but they have already deployed a field hospital in the area's capital (Lleida).

These same guys were criticizing Madrid for being too lax when it was the central government calling the shots  :rolleyes:

It is impossible to avoid politicians politicising even doing a pandemic. The Scots (well, SNP) are doing the same. They throw a temper tantrum after each and every single pandemic-related change Westminster announces, just to quietly repeat it themselves a couple of days later. It is getting tiresome.

celedhring

They half-u-turned after saying that lockdown wasn't on the cards and they have now sealed off the county (only can travel in and out for work-related reasons). But no mobility restrictions inside the affected area. I think they are trying too hard to thread the needle of containing it without shutting down the farming industry.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Tamas on July 04, 2020, 02:40:57 AM
It is impossible to avoid politicians politicising even doing a pandemic. The Scots (well, SNP) are doing the same. They throw a temper tantrum after each and every single pandemic-related change Westminster announces, just to quietly repeat it themselves a couple of days later. It is getting tiresome.
Yeah I agree on the SNP (who are in government in Scotland, after all) generally. One interesitng point of difference is the Scottish government have come out and mandated a mask if you're in an enclased space. England still only requires a mask if you're on public transport. Personally I think the Scots are right on this.

There is still the weird Northern European and Australia divergence on masks that we're part of:
Let's bomb Russia!

alfred russel

Quote from: Zoupa on July 03, 2020, 09:10:03 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 03, 2020, 08:08:51 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on July 03, 2020, 06:47:57 PM

:mellow: ok?

Glad you finally see the light I guess?

Zoupa, I've always said since the beginning that the mortality rate may be up to 1%. If something with that level of mortality runs its course through the population - say 60-70%, that is a fuckton of people that die. I've never said otherwise.

People that insisted that the mortality rate is up around 4%, or that 14% of infected younger people were going to need hospitalization, or that bird watchers were somehow disastrous, or that millions of american children were going to die...

I mean, in March there was almost no coronavirus here but everyone was scared and locked down. Now people have collectively stopped giving a fuck. There is more coronavirus than ever before - if we ever were to be cautious this is the time. I'm at a lake in South Carolina--the place is jamming as much as it ever has for a 4th of July weekend. I was at a restaurant and there was a crowd waiting to get in, every table was occupied, the bar was jammed, and not a single person was wearing  a mask. If you want me to dig up posts where I said this is what would happen back in March, April and May, I'll do it for you.

You know you don't have to type the name of the poster you're replying to every time right? It's already apparent since you're quoting me.

But anyways, if you want to roll the dice on your health, go right ahead. Y'all have decided that putting on a mask for a couple of weeks is way too hard, so enjoy your scarred lungs, amputated digits/limbs, fucked up pancreas etc etc  ad nauseam.

I'll never understand so I'm done trying.

I wear a mask. I don't think that is very hard. It certainly won't be for a couple weeks though.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014


Tamas

At this stage, I think the best we can do is accommodate people who are responsible enough to limit their exposure, for example encouraging working from home, plus ban the kind of gatherings that can be mostly banned like festivals and sport events, and keep fingers crossed that these will keep ICU admissions on a manageable level, because the people have been let loose and they wont return to lockdown unless there is a visible catastrophy.