Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is a government that is really not very good at politics. Shapps' sophistry on the Marr show was inadvertently hilarious. The longer that Cummings can cling on the more damage there is to the Johnson regime 

I think they have forgotten, or never knew, that a swift resignation is often the best route forwards when something like this happens. Cummings could always have come back next year when the virus is pushed off the front page by no-deal chaos and shortages. Instead they have revealed that really the rules are for us little people, not for the likes of them.

[Sheilbh]

Yep - apologise profusely or go quickly and do a Mandelson. As it is they've chosen the worst options which means this'll just keep running.

Now they're facing at least another week of this and, at some point, someone senior will have to face the press. They can't keep using Grant Shapps (who is not the most impressive cabinet minister we've ever seen) as a human shield.

[The Brain]

Swedish Department of social services has done some calculations. Apparently about 11,000 have died so far this year of all causes, compare to about 10,000 a normal year. They compared it to just a bit worse than a normal flu season.

Both those numbers are too low if we are talking about Jan-May 2020; they must be using a shorter timespan.

I can't seem to find the article again, I read it a few days ago. IIRC the numbers don't square with my calculations a while back.

Maybe this? Forum can't handle "ö" in the link but you'll manage. https://www.msn.com/sv-se/nyheter/coronavirus/liknande-dödstal-på-äldreboenden-varje-år/ar-BB14uAvD?ocid=spartanntp

It's about the number of dead in Sweden at care homes for olds. 10,000 at this point of a normal year, 11,000 so far this year, not extremely different from normal flu season. Their point is that the situation at care homes in Sweden isn't apocalyptic.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. There is an issue with using from the beginning of the year because, in the UK for example, the deaths this year were a fair bit below average until March. It was a very mild flu season/effective vaccine.

That stat seems weird though as in that BBC interview with Anders Tegnell he said the big problem Sweden had that was causing deaths was a failure to sufficiently protect care homes.

[Legbiter]

Went in for the antibody study last Friday. Got tested at the same time. Negative. I won't know the results until after weeks have passed.

[The Brain]

Yeah. There is an issue with using from the beginning of the year because, in the UK for example, the deaths this year were a fair bit below average until March. It was a very mild flu season/effective vaccine.

That stat seems weird though as in that BBC interview with Anders Tegnell he said the big problem Sweden had that was causing deaths was a failure to sufficiently protect care homes.

I'm sure results could have been better if the care homes had been better protected. But of course old people who are unwell enough to be in a care home die like flies even in normal times.

[garbon]

Boris...

[Sheilbh]

Boris...

It's a bold decision. Doubling down - I suspect the Tories will get rid of Boris after Brexit so some point between January 2021 and the next election, or, possibly, sooner.

Edit: And he's now open to a lot of detailed questions about the guidance the government's asking us to follow and what he knew, when. And Johnson isn't known as a details man.

[Syt]

Does Cummings have dirt on Johnson?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Top comment in the Daily Mail : expecting Johnson to sack Cummings is like expecting Emu to sack Rod Hull 

A pity only me and mongers will get it 

[Legbiter]

That stat seems weird though as in that BBC interview with Anders Tegnell he said the big problem Sweden had that was causing deaths was a failure to sufficiently protect care homes.

What worries me is that we're only a couple of months into this pandemic. Sweden is paying a terrible price. If we had the same mortality as them, the napkin math would come out to almost 300 people dead from the virus.

[garbon]

What is so amazing about Cummings?

[Syt]

Top comment in the Daily Mail : expecting Johnson to sack Cummings is like expecting Emu to sack Rod Hull 

A pity only me and mongers will get it 

A quick Google image search explains the reference quite well.

[Sheilbh]

What is so amazing about Cummings?

I don't buy the whole bad advisors, Rasputin version of Cummings. I think it's very kind to Boris Johnson, the amount of attention Cummings gets.

Truth is PMs will normally fight for their chief advisor, because they're close, they trust them and they see value in them.

Gordon Brown tried to keep Damien McBride after he was caught trying to spread fake sex scandals/smears about female Tory MPs and Labour MPs who opposed Brown (I think this lasted until he was caught trying to smear George Osborne and David Cameron's wife) - it was like if you had a left-wing Jacob Wohl in Downing Street. David Cameron kept Andy Coulson a very long time after the phone-hacking scandal broke, I think right up until he was charged (and he was later found guilty). Blair tried to keep Campbell as long as he could after Iraq and into the Hutton Inquiry.

I mean at least Theresa May's advisors were apparently just incredibly aggressive and unpleasant as opposed to you know libelling people, hacking into the voicemail of a murdered teenager or involvement in a war.

With Cummings he has interesting ideas about the state - a sort of updated Project Cybersyn - and is clearly valuable to Johnson still (possibly precisely because he attracts a lot of attention and focus). At some point Johnson will decide the cost of defending him is causing too much damage to Johnson - and then he'll go. I think that'll come soon, because I think they are mistakenly thinking this is a "Westminster bubble" story when it is clearly something that's cutting through.

The other side is Johnson and Cummings, I suspect burned a lot of credibility with a lot of Tory MPs and the cabinet in defending him yesterday only for new stories to emerge. And as I say it'll be interesting to see who's doing the media for the next few days.

[garbon]

Sure but here was a pretty open and shut case. And he chose his advisor over the health of the populace.