Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Eddie Teach]

I wonder what the effect on election an outbreak would have.  One obvious outcome is that Buttigieg will be the nominee by default.  The stakes would also get much higher with five or so openings on the Supreme Court.

What about the GOP candidate? Brokered convention?

Trump is a germaphobe. I imagine he'll go full Howard Hughes in the White House.

Might be too late though.

[The Minsky Moment]

Ok let's say we value at 1/10 of what the agencies do.  That still implies it would be worth spending around $160 billion to prevent.

The point of this exercise is not to get to a precise amount but to get a rough sense of what a reasonable proportional response looks like given the risk.

[Syt]

3 confirmed cases in Vienna, including a school kid.

It's been nice knowing you guys.

[DGuller]

That is a preposterous assumption.

It's not an assumption.  It is the actual figure used by regulatory agencies spending real federal dollars.

Again with the facts. Lawyers 

It's a fact taken out of context.  No, the US population on the whole is not worth 160 times its GDP.  When it comes to analytics, you need to use common sense to know when a "fact" applies and when its underlying assumptions cease to be satisfied.

[viper37]

Seems to me this is a simple application of risk aversion.

There are three possible reactions, as measured ex post

1) React exactly and precisely in proportion to the threat, as measured ex post.  The chance of hitting this precise sweet spot ex ante is not great
2) Over-react
3) Under-react

Since (1) is unlikely, the real options are (2) or (3). But the cost of under-reacting at an increment "X" is likely to be higher than the cost of over-reacting at a similar increment.

Therefore it is rational to over-react.

It really depends on what you intend by "over-react" (I have missed a couple of pages), but #1 should be to simply prepare, in case it happens.  Have a plan.  Like, say, in war, you certainly plan for the ennemy to attack you at some point.  And yes, maybe you built defensive structures for nothing, but you were prepared.  That is not over-reacting.

Same thing with the disease.  Plan ahead, at a governmental level.  On other end of the spectrum, saying it's no big deal because it doesn't kill as much as Ebola or car accidents is kinda stupid.  We are vaccinated for a high number of diseases which has much less than 50% chances of killing us.  We do it because it's much more convenient to be healthy than to be sick at home.

Infected people won't work.  If their kids is infected, the school will be shut down and lots of people will be home as CC pointed.

That is an economic risk that must be factored in in your calculations.  There is also the possibility of sequels due to this virus.  Maybe you'll have a bad kidney after that.  Of maybe your lungs would be damaged.  It is much better to prepare in advance to avoid the worst possible scenario.

That means a federal government coordinating with the healthcare directors/ministers of all States/Provinces/Regions of their territory to establish a plan of action in case of a pandemic.  Yes, that will cost money.  But just like global warming and many other catastrophes, the choice is paying a little now for protection or paying a lot later to deal with the damages.

[alfred russel]

Ok let's say we value at 1/10 of what the agencies do.  That still implies it would be worth spending around $160 billion to prevent.

The point of this exercise is not to get to a precise amount but to get a rough sense of what a reasonable proportional response looks like given the risk.

And trillions of market cap have disappeared--a large portion of which can be attributed to anticipated lost economic activity due to the response to the virus. It doesn't cost a penny to tell people to avoid unnecessary trips outside the home but the restaurant owner that has his business fail has suffered a real costs (which won't even be directly included in those market cap losses, btw).

[PDH]

What scares me the most are double-digit numbers of people requiring critcal care all at the same time. The math becomes horrendous very fast.

Virgin Soil Epidemics can be most lethal not by the mortality of the disease but by overwhelming the ability to care for the sick who could recover with proper care.

[Maladict]

First case in the Netherlands. I'm getting married in April, I might still dodge that bullet 

[PDH]

First case in the Netherlands. I'm getting married in April, I might still dodge that bullet 

You could have just said "maybe later"

[viper37]

U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says

Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint.

The workers did not show symptoms of infection and were not tested for the virus, according to lawyers for the whistleblower, a senior HHS official based in Washington who oversees workers at the Administration for Children and Families, a unit within HHS.

The whistleblower is seeking federal protection, alleging she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. She was told Feb. 19 that if she does not accept the new position in 15 days, which is March 5, she would be terminated.

The whistleblower has decades of experience in the field, received two HHS department awards from Azar last year and has received the highest performance evaluations, her lawyers said.
[...]

How nice.

[dps]

Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

[DGuller]

Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

I don't wonder.  The right has been very successful at sabotaging the government, pointing to predictable problems that result from the government being sabotaged, and then convincing the critical thinkers among us to support them sabotaging the government some more.  The most effective way to convince people to be enthusiastically stupid is to make them think they're being smart and discerning.

[Razgovory]

Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

Republican incompetence is not a good enough reason to weaken a the government during a national emergency.

[mongers]

Now it's getting serious:

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/worldNews/~3/je-S9cFfJ2M/cycling-uae-tour-canceled-after-positive-coronavirus-tests-idUSKCN20L333

Cycling: UAE Tour canceled after positive coronavirus tests

The final two stages of the UAE Tour, which is featuring some of the world's leading riders, has been canceled due to two Italian riders testing positive for coronavirus, the Abu Dhabi Sports Council said on Thursday.

What has been going on in Italy, apparently undetected until recently, as it seems to be the source for no end of European infections.

[grumbler]

Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

Leftists probably wonder why on earth you think that the Trump administration is leftist.  It is the right that currently seeks to give the government more power.  They just want more government power to regulate everyone's morality, rather than more government power to regulate everyone's paycheck.