Author Topic: US Elections 2020  (Read 36636 times)

The Minsky Moment

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1650 on: September 13, 2019, 10:45:26 am »
Well, I think it seemed pretty clear that someone is advising the non-Warren, non-Sanders set to actually talk as if they actually want to get elected. So that is good.

Trying to compete or outflank Sanders and Warren on the left has been a failed strategy.  (looking at you Mayor DeBlasio).   Those two have that vote locked down between them  The only game in town is competing with Biden for the moderate vote.
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Habbaku

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1651 on: September 13, 2019, 11:16:03 am »
My body is ready for a Warren presidency, but my mind is still coming to terms with it.
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FunkMonk

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1652 on: September 13, 2019, 12:04:27 pm »
I like Warren, even though I don't really agree with a lot of her policy points. She'd make a good President, I think.

Good luck trying to nationalize x, y, and z with a Republican Senate, though.
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Barrister

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1653 on: September 13, 2019, 12:44:18 pm »
My body is ready for a Warren presidency, but my mind is still coming to terms with it.

I dunno - her wealth tax would scare the shit out of me if it was ever actually put in place.

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1654 on: September 13, 2019, 12:47:55 pm »
That'd be the mind part. And the foolish anti-trust rage against tech companies. And the student loan bailout (which would help me, but still). And...etc.

Whatever. Still better than Trump.
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

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crazy canuck

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1655 on: September 13, 2019, 12:49:12 pm »
My body is ready for a Warren presidency, but my mind is still coming to terms with it.

I dunno - her wealth tax would scare the shit out of me if it was ever actually put in place.

Why?  Honest question -

If implemented and enforced it is much more equitable than an estate tax, has less loopholes and is modest to negligible in its impact on those paying the tax.

Also, you would likely have nothing to fear - It is unlikely your assets will be worth 50 million US any time soon. 

Barrister

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1656 on: September 13, 2019, 01:00:28 pm »
My body is ready for a Warren presidency, but my mind is still coming to terms with it.

I dunno - her wealth tax would scare the shit out of me if it was ever actually put in place.

Why?  Honest question -

If implemented and enforced it is much more equitable than an estate tax, has less loopholes and is modest to negligible in its impact on those paying the tax.

Also, you would likely have nothing to fear - It is unlikely your assets will be worth 50 million US any time soon.

I wasn't aware that the threshold was that high.  You're right it would  not effect me.  But the overall effects on the economy would still be quite negative in terms of capital flight and loss of investment.  There's also a strong case to suggest it would be unconstitutional - the US did need a constitutional amendment in order to implement the income tax after all.

There's also massive issues on valuations.  How much is a factory worth?  a farm?

There's also a lot of businesses out there that are profitable, but are a terrible in terms of a return on investment.  With Warren's wealth tax a business needs to generate a 2% ROI just to stay afloat.

There's a reason most countries that have introduced a wealth tax have subsequently repealed it.

crazy canuck

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1657 on: September 13, 2019, 01:22:44 pm »
My body is ready for a Warren presidency, but my mind is still coming to terms with it.

I dunno - her wealth tax would scare the shit out of me if it was ever actually put in place.

Why?  Honest question -

If implemented and enforced it is much more equitable than an estate tax, has less loopholes and is modest to negligible in its impact on those paying the tax.

Also, you would likely have nothing to fear - It is unlikely your assets will be worth 50 million US any time soon.

I wasn't aware that the threshold was that high.  You're right it would  not effect me.  But the overall effects on the economy would still be quite negative in terms of capital flight and loss of investment.  There's also a strong case to suggest it would be unconstitutional - the US did need a constitutional amendment in order to implement the income tax after all.

There's also massive issues on valuations.  How much is a factory worth?  a farm?

There's also a lot of businesses out there that are profitable, but are a terrible in terms of a return on investment.  With Warren's wealth tax a business needs to generate a 2% ROI just to stay afloat.

There's a reason most countries that have introduced a wealth tax have subsequently repealed it.

Where is there any evidence it would effect the economy?  Not to mention "quite negative"?  Again honest question.

The main complaint I have read is that it is difficult to implement and administratively burdensome to the point that the net tax take may be minimal. 

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1658 on: September 13, 2019, 02:00:49 pm »
Didnít watch the debate but hearing Bidenís rambling nonsense in sound bites this morning seems pretty damaging.

Biden missing a step is probably already priced in with his supporters. Won't affect his numbers that much.
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crazy canuck

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1659 on: September 13, 2019, 04:26:28 pm »
Didnít watch the debate but hearing Bidenís rambling nonsense in sound bites this morning seems pretty damaging.

Biden missing a step is probably already priced in with his supporters. Won't affect his numbers that much.

I think you are right, but once the non Warren/Bernie candidates start dropping won't he need to attract some of that support to win?

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1660 on: September 13, 2019, 04:28:55 pm »
Didnít watch the debate but hearing Bidenís rambling nonsense in sound bites this morning seems pretty damaging.

Biden missing a step is probably already priced in with his supporters. Won't affect his numbers that much.

I think you are right, but once the non Warren/Bernie candidates start dropping won't he need to attract some of that support to win?

The non-Warren/Bernie candidates tend to be the more moderate ones, so he's reasonably well positioned to pick up their support.  There's probably a reason someone is supporting, say, Mayor Pete rather than Warren/Bernie to begin with.

crazy canuck

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1661 on: September 13, 2019, 04:36:06 pm »
Didnít watch the debate but hearing Bidenís rambling nonsense in sound bites this morning seems pretty damaging.

Biden missing a step is probably already priced in with his supporters. Won't affect his numbers that much.

I think you are right, but once the non Warren/Bernie candidates start dropping won't he need to attract some of that support to win?

The non-Warren/Bernie candidates tend to be the more moderate ones, so he's reasonably well positioned to pick up their support.  There's probably a reason someone is supporting, say, Mayor Pete rather than Warren/Bernie to begin with.

I was not suggesting they would go to Warren/Bernie.  Isn't Biden's biggest risk that one of the others become a contender who can speak coherently.  Either that or once Bernie is eliminated Warren can start sounding more moderate.

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1662 on: September 13, 2019, 05:00:20 pm »
I was not suggesting they would go to Warren/Bernie.  Isn't Biden's biggest risk that one of the others become a contender who can speak coherently.  Either that or once Bernie is eliminated Warren can start sounding more moderate.

I think that's the hope for Harris/Booker/ Butigieg - that Biden's support collapses and they can be the more moderate heir to that support.

Except I remember that's what people were thinking in 2015 - no one would attack Trump, thinking his support would collapse.  Except it didn't.

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1663 on: September 13, 2019, 07:40:20 pm »
Biden to me seems like a very unsafe "safe option".  I think it's been shown time and again that it's a losing strategy to go with safe options, you need to go with options that actually excite people.  You won't convince many people to change their minds, but you can certainly inspire them to vote when they normally wouldn't.

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1664 on: September 13, 2019, 08:08:36 pm »
Biden to me seems like a very unsafe "safe option".  I think it's been shown time and again that it's a losing strategy to go with safe options, you need to go with options that actually excite people.  You won't convince many people to change their minds, but you can certainly inspire them to vote when they normally wouldn't.
Complete agreement.  Biden will be a disaster as a candidate.  Trump will rip him apart.  If he can barely handle his fellow Democrats now, he has zero chance as the nominee.  Also, he'll murder the Progressive and youth demographics of the Democrats.  If Hillary looked bad for certain groups compared to Sanders, then Biden over every other option in the race still is even more egregious in my opinion.
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