Author Topic: US Elections 2020  (Read 259119 times)

grumbler

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7080 on: September 18, 2020, 04:43:56 pm »
Interesting news from NPR when I was listening to ATC this afternoon.  According to the new PEW poll (I think it was Pew; I was driving and so not paying complete attention), Trump is losing the college-educated "White" vote 31%-66% among likely voters.  He won that group 55-38 in 2016.

It's not showing up yet on the Pew main page.
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DGuller

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7081 on: September 18, 2020, 06:09:05 pm »
Was that 538 with that forecast? Because since 2016 I have only trusted 538 so I just want to check if my confidence is misplaced :P

Nah, it was the infamous Huffington Post.

Quote
The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_n_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94?guccounter=1
This is why 538 predictions (and distributions around them) are the only thing you need to pay attention to.  It may give some people heartburn that Trump has 22% chance as of now, but that’s probably the best estimate of reality.  I really wish it weren’t, but we live in really dark times now.

merithyn

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7082 on: September 18, 2020, 09:32:44 pm »
Everybody vote as early as possible. I know some people are turning their mail in ballots now. Just get it done and don't let weird last minute election weirdness disrupt your vote.

Our ballots aren't sent out until mid-October. Specifically, three weeks before election day. I will be voting the moment that I receive it, and then driving it to the ballot drop off.
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merithyn

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7083 on: September 18, 2020, 09:38:29 pm »
Trump getting florida seems more likely than not to me. But agreed, the maths don't add up for him even then if Biden does half good in the Midwest and southwest.

I'm really interested in how Texas is increasingly passing from being safely republican to being competitive. Probably too early this election short of a huge upset but later this decade....


Yeah, Texas is shifting.  A big part of it is because so many white Texas are accepting of Hispanics, since, you know, they've lived there for centuries.  Trump's anti-Mexican thing is hurts him I think.  Texans, as a whole, are a decent lot, and don't go in for cruelty.

I'd argue that a lot of people are moving to Texas from the West Coast for affordability reasons. That, combined with what you've said, is changing the dynamics of the state.
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Valmy

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7084 on: September 18, 2020, 11:44:19 pm »
I'd argue that a lot of people are moving to Texas from the West Coast for affordability reasons. That, combined with what you've said, is changing the dynamics of the state.

It jumped from 30% in the 1990s to a 5% GOP lead in 2018 unusually quickly to the GOP losing the suburbs. The 2018 elections were shocking from my perspective. I knew we were slowly closing the gap but it sure went from a comfortable 10-15% GOP lead to a thin 3-5% one in just the 2016-2018 period. We didn't get THAT many Californians moving here in just those two years. We are a very urban and suburban state. Gaining so much ground in the GOP strongholds in the suburbs gives us an opportunity. I am optimistic for more gains in both the US Congressional delegation and the state house this year. I am less excited about the senate race as winning a full state race outright is still a pretty tall order though it will still be sort of close.

It would be kind of nice for this to be a two party state as I don't really think it has ever been that. Texas has always had very one sided politics with either the Democrats or the Republicans being comfortably entrenched.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 11:45:59 pm by Valmy »
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Sheilbh

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7085 on: September 19, 2020, 12:55:41 am »
I feel like RBG's death is very unhelpful for Trump.
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celedhring

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7086 on: September 19, 2020, 02:21:57 am »
I feel like RBG's death is very unhelpful for Trump.

I'm not sure. It brings the Supreme Court issue to the forefront, which is something that helps shore up the vote of republican moderates.

garbon

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7087 on: September 19, 2020, 02:50:44 am »
I feel like RBG's death is very unhelpful for Trump.

I'm not sure. It brings the Supreme Court issue to the forefront, which is something that helps shore up the vote of republican moderates.

Only if they wait?

It also could bring both sides out.
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celedhring

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7088 on: September 19, 2020, 02:55:08 am »
I feel like RBG's death is very unhelpful for Trump.

I'm not sure. It brings the Supreme Court issue to the forefront, which is something that helps shore up the vote of republican moderates.

Only if they wait?

It also could bring both sides out.

The way I see it, there's no chance that the republicans can push a nominee before the election, so you'll have that issue dangling on election day.

It could bring both sides out indeed, but I think the chance of securing a conservative court for decades might make 4 years of Trump palatable for some wishy-washy conservatives disgusted by him. Granted, RBG's seat was always coming up in the next term, but this brings the issue to the front.

The bottom line is that having the election be about the SCOTUS is far better for Trump than having it be about nearly everything else he's done.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2020, 03:04:05 am by celedhring »

Sheilbh

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7089 on: September 19, 2020, 04:32:51 am »
I'm not sure. It brings the Supreme Court issue to the forefront, which is something that helps shore up the vote of republican moderates.
Yeah - I've written off Republican moderates :lol:

Way I see it this will probably boost enthusiasm for Democrats and Trump won't be able to pivot to the economy which is what he seems to want to do. The focus will be on social issues which are less popular for Republicans and especially less popular in the suburbs where Trump is already vulnerable.
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FunkMonk

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7090 on: September 19, 2020, 07:46:45 am »
Yeah, I don't really see this moving the needle in the Presidential election. It will play out much more significantly in the Senate elections though.
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Valmy

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7091 on: September 19, 2020, 08:52:18 pm »
Nothing seems to move the needle in the Presidential election much.
If we can hit that bull's-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate!

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Admiral Yi

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7092 on: September 19, 2020, 08:57:59 pm »
Nothing seems to move the needle in the Presidential election much.

That's not true.  Before Covid Donald wasn't losing by 9 points everywhere it matters.
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merithyn

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7093 on: September 20, 2020, 03:03:27 am »
Before COVID, we didn't know who he would be up against.
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Sheilbh

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7094 on: September 20, 2020, 09:24:19 am »
Before COVID, we didn't know who he would be up against.
And given timing it's really difficult to unpick Joe, covid and BLM.
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