Author Topic: US Elections 2020  (Read 259156 times)

FunkMonk

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7065 on: September 18, 2020, 11:52:38 am »
The 538 forecast model shows Donald's chances ticking down over the last few weeks, back to the level they were at in June (roughly 22 in 100).

Interestingly, they give Donald a 10 in 100 chance of winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote, which is roughly similar to the Economist's model (13%). I think it's fair to say that, realistically, Donald has almost no chance of winning the popular vote, so as it stands he has a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning re-election, according to these models. :hmm:
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Barrister

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7066 on: September 18, 2020, 11:57:04 am »
The 538 forecast model shows Donald's chances ticking down over the last few weeks, back to the level they were at in June (roughly 22 in 100).

Interestingly, they give Donald a 10 in 100 chance of winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote, which is roughly similar to the Economist's model (13%). I think it's fair to say that, realistically, Donald has almost no chance of winning the popular vote, so as it stands he has a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning re-election, according to these models. :hmm:

A lot of the chance of Trump winning is just the uncertainty based into the model - that they don't know what might happen between now and election day.

As we get closer to election day his chances should go down, even if the polls remain static, because there's less time for something to happen.  Certainly if the polls stay the same Trump should lose fairly convincingly.

Valmy

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7067 on: September 18, 2020, 12:05:42 pm »
Everybody vote as early as possible. I know some people are turning their mail in ballots now. Just get it done and don't let weird last minute election weirdness disrupt your vote.
If we can hit that bull's-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate!

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7068 on: September 18, 2020, 12:40:35 pm »
The 538 forecast model shows Donald's chances ticking down over the last few weeks, back to the level they were at in June (roughly 22 in 100).

Interestingly, they give Donald a 10 in 100 chance of winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote, which is roughly similar to the Economist's model (13%). I think it's fair to say that, realistically, Donald has almost no chance of winning the popular vote, so as it stands he has a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning re-election, according to these models. :hmm:



A reasonable take I guess but we'll see. Whoever wins better do it convincingly via the EC. Trump mostly retaining his 2016 map would be credible or Biden winning by reflipping Obama voters in the Rust Belt plus Pensylvania. As long as there's a clear winner the US should be good.
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Razgovory

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7069 on: September 18, 2020, 12:45:04 pm »
Well, that is very convincing.  I totally buy the argument that the bar is 98.% blue.
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7070 on: September 18, 2020, 01:29:47 pm »
The 538 forecast model shows Donald's chances ticking down over the last few weeks, back to the level they were at in June (roughly 22 in 100).

Interestingly, they give Donald a 10 in 100 chance of winning the electoral college but losing the popular vote, which is roughly similar to the Economist's model (13%). I think it's fair to say that, realistically, Donald has almost no chance of winning the popular vote, so as it stands he has a roughly 1 in 10 chance of winning re-election, according to these models. :hmm:



A reasonable take I guess but we'll see. Whoever wins better do it convincingly via the EC. Trump mostly retaining his 2016 map would be credible or Biden winning by reflipping Obama voters in the Rust Belt plus Pensylvania. As long as there's a clear winner the US should be good.

Was that 538 with that forecast? Because since 2016 I have only trusted 538 so I just want to check if my confidence is misplaced :P

I think Trump has a very good chance of winning this time around. The EC is going to come down to a few states that are all close. Yes Biden is ahead, but there are lots of factors in those states that might not go our way.
If we can hit that bull's-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate!

Valmy is practically french. :frog:

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Barrister

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7071 on: September 18, 2020, 01:38:44 pm »
I think Trump has a very good chance of winning this time around. The EC is going to come down to a few states that are all close. Yes Biden is ahead, but there are lots of factors in those states that might not go our way.

But the thing about those really close races: Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina - is that Trump has to win all of them to win.  If Biden picks up any one of the 4, and the polling is accurate in the other 46 states, Biden wins.

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7072 on: September 18, 2020, 01:48:26 pm »
Was that 538 with that forecast? Because since 2016 I have only trusted 538 so I just want to check if my confidence is misplaced :P

It's a 'shopped version of the HuffPost prediction of DT having a 16% chance of winning.

Quote
I think Trump has a very good chance of winning this time around. The EC is going to come down to a few states that are all close. Yes Biden is ahead, but there are lots of factors in those states that might not go our way.

I'm not sure I'd rate Trump's chances as "very good," but if you changed that to "very real" I'd agree.  Biden being up in Florida is very very bad news for Trump though.  If Trump loses Florida, he has no path to 270 EV.
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Valmy

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7073 on: September 18, 2020, 01:53:14 pm »
I think Trump has a very good chance of winning this time around. The EC is going to come down to a few states that are all close. Yes Biden is ahead, but there are lots of factors in those states that might not go our way.

But the thing about those really close races: Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina - is that Trump has to win all of them to win.  If Biden picks up any one of the 4, and the polling is accurate in the other 46 states, Biden wins.

Yes but Biden would have to hold serve in all of them. Some of the ligher blue states like Nevada could be problematic.
If we can hit that bull's-eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate!

Valmy is practically french. :frog:

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7074 on: September 18, 2020, 02:22:48 pm »
Trump getting florida seems more likely than not to me. But agreed, the maths don't add up for him even then if Biden does half good in the Midwest and southwest.

I'm really interested in how Texas is increasingly passing from being safely republican to being competitive. Probably too early this election short of a huge upset but later this decade....
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FunkMonk

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7075 on: September 18, 2020, 02:33:21 pm »
Lots of polls are showing Biden leading are at least even with voters aged 65 and over, as well as pulling even or closer with whites (relative to Clinton). These are the voters Joe needs to win the Midwest and, likely, the Presidency.

Unless, of course, there is some systemic polling error among many polls this year. Who knows? But that polling error could easily go Biden's way as well as Trump's, and that would flip states like Georgia and Texas.
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7076 on: September 18, 2020, 02:37:50 pm »
Lots of polls are showing Biden leading are at least even with voters aged 65 and over, as well as pulling even or closer with whites (relative to Clinton). These are the voters Joe needs to win the Midwest and, likely, the Presidency.

Unless, of course, there is some systemic polling error among many polls this year. Who knows? But that polling error could easily go Biden's way as well as Trump's, and that would flip states like Georgia and Texas.

Trump campaign seems to be hoping for "shy Trump" voters out there.

Problem is - Trump voters don't seem very shy about who they are voting for.  Shy Biden voters are just as, if not more, likely.

Razgovory

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7077 on: September 18, 2020, 02:39:08 pm »
Trump getting florida seems more likely than not to me. But agreed, the maths don't add up for him even then if Biden does half good in the Midwest and southwest.

I'm really interested in how Texas is increasingly passing from being safely republican to being competitive. Probably too early this election short of a huge upset but later this decade....


Yeah, Texas is shifting.  A big part of it is because so many white Texas are accepting of Hispanics, since, you know, they've lived there for centuries.  Trump's anti-Mexican thing is hurts him I think.  Texans, as a whole, are a decent lot, and don't go in for cruelty.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

grumbler

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7078 on: September 18, 2020, 02:44:15 pm »

Trump campaign seems to be hoping for "shy Trump" voters out there.

Problem is - Trump voters don't seem very shy about who they are voting for.  Shy Biden voters are just as, if not more, likely.

The "shy voters" are those unwilling to be polled, and far more likely to be trump voters than Biden ones, because trump voters think all polls are rigged by the Leftist Conspiracy, the Deep State, and the Swamp.
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7079 on: September 18, 2020, 03:24:49 pm »
Was that 538 with that forecast? Because since 2016 I have only trusted 538 so I just want to check if my confidence is misplaced :P

Nah, it was the infamous Huffington Post.

Quote
The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_n_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94?guccounter=1

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