Author Topic: US Elections 2020  (Read 259009 times)

Grinning_Colossus

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US Elections 2020
« on: January 06, 2019, 11:48:59 pm »
Or, Liz Warren's long, happy ride to the White House.

Quote
How Elizabeth Warren Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Ideologically, Warren is right where a Democratic primary candidate should want to be — it’s one of the strongest cards in her hand. According to FiveThirtyEight’s Trump Score, she votes with the president just 13.1 percent of the time, making her the third-most anti-Trump senator in the 115th Congress. Although she’s best known for her stands against income inequality and big banks, she is deeply liberal on both social and economic issues, according to an analysis of her votes and positions by OnTheIssues — although not quite as liberal as Sen. Bernie Sanders, one of Warren’s potential 2020 rivals.



Warren’s base is likely to overlap quite a bit with Sanders’s, the self-described democratic socialist who turned heads in the 2016 presidential primaries by winning 40 percent of Democratic delegates. Warren even seemed to make an explicit play for Sanders voters when she devoted a full minute (mid-personal bio, no less) of her four-and-a-half-minute announcement video to an economic-populist message. “America’s middle class is under attack. … Billionaires and big corporations decided they wanted more of the pie and they enlisted politicians to cut them a fatter slice.”

In fact, at least one poll suggests that Warren and Sanders (if he runs again in 2020) will be fighting over the same pool of voters. Back in April 2018, Suffolk University conducted a poll of two versions of the 2020 Democratic primary in New Hampshire: one without Warren and one with her. In the version without her, Sanders pulled 25 percent of the vote. In the version with her, he dropped to 13 percent; Warren got 26 percent. None of the other six candidates about whom the poll asked lost as much support as Sanders did with Warren in the field.

Sanders and Warren have something else in common: the support of small donors, or those who give $200 or less to a campaign. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, as of Nov. 1, small donors were behind 56 percent of all the money raised by Warren’s re-election campaign. The only 2018 Senate candidate whose fundraising was more reliant on small donors was Sanders himself.

And in terms of raw dollar amounts, Warren raised $10 million more from small donors than Sanders did, even though neither one was facing a competitive race. Warren’s $19.4 million small-donor haul was second only to Beto O’Rourke’s among 2018 general-election candidates for Senate or House. Presidential campaigns are expensive affairs, and being a strong fundraiser — particularly among small donors, a well that is less likely to run dry — is a huge advantage. It can also signal high voter enthusiasm for a candidate.

Warren’s deep pockets may also be financing her apparent strategy of building up goodwill among state-level Democrats who will be instrumental in primary and caucus field organizing. According to the Washington Post, she directed at least $7.6 million to Democratic campaigns for offices like state treasurer and legislator in 2018 — more than any rumored 2020 contender not named Michael Bloomberg. As of mid-October, Warren had also made 172 post-primary congratulatory phone calls to Democratic candidates, blasted her email list on their behalf 180 times, shared policy documents with them 63 times, held 61 one-on-one meetings, hosted 41 fundraisers and shot 36 videos. That is how you develop a network.

Central to Warren’s grassroots networking strategy may be New Hampshire — less than an hour’s drive away from her home base and the second state in the country (after Iowa) to cast primary ballots. While she sent one staffer each to Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada for the 2018 election, two of her aides moved to New Hampshire despite it not hosting any particularly competitive major elections. (They assumed pretty major roles there, too — as the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s political director and communications director.)

The polls at this point aren’t very predictive, but if the primaries were held today, it looks like New Hampshire would be her strongest state. In the latest poll of the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary, 17 percent of Granite Staters said they would vote for Warren, putting her in third place — 2 points away from second.1 In Iowa — or at least in the three Iowa caucus polls taken since Nov. 6, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polls database — she averages 8 percent, putting her in fourth place. She fares the worst in national polls, averaging 5 percent in seven national 2020 Democratic primary polls2 conducted since Election Day.

Overall, Warren’s campaign looks like it could go either way. With some skill and luck, she could launch herself right into the thick of the nomination fight. But there are plenty of reasons to be pessimistic about Warren as well, starting with her stature among her own constituents. Just after Election Day, UMass Amherst released a poll of the 2020 Democratic primary in Massachusetts, and Warren garnered just 11 percent of the sample. That is not good in a state where her name recognition is already high and Democrats are as intimately familiar with her record as any 2020 voter is going to get: Most eventual nominees were already lapping the field in polls of their home states at this point in previous presidential election cycles.

Her 2018 re-election was also unimpressive in a state as blue as Massachusetts. Warren won, but only by 24 points in a state nearly 30 points more Democratic-leaning than the country as a whole.3 Add in the extremely favorable national environment to Democrats, and she “should” have won Massachusetts by more than 39 points.4 By this method, Warren had the weakest incumbency advantage across hundreds of Senate and House elections last year.

It’s unclear what’s cooling voters on Warren. The fallout from her DNA test just weeks before Election Day is a decent guess. But the controversy over her ancestry may also be a proxy for other, less socially acceptable reasons why people dislike her, such as her gender or age. “I don’t think America’s ready for another Hillary. It has to be someone young and dynamic,” one interviewee told Boston radio station WBUR-FM.

Warren has long polarized audiences and was never the world’s most beloved politician to begin with. That may be because she’s a woman with a confrontational style. It may be sexism mixed with other reasons. Whatever the cause(s), Warren isn’t in the best starting position as she enters the fray. But she’s not in the worst position either — she’ll likely find a receptive audience for her message in terms of policy and ideology. A well-run campaign would put her among the field’s top contenders. We’ll find out soon enough: Warren says she’ll announce for sure whether she’s running “early in the new year.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-elizabeth-warren-could-win-the-2020-democratic-primary/


Hopefully the other potential Dem candidates will opt for 8 more years of grandstanding in the Senate/losing elections in Texas rather than stand in front of the Liz train.  :)
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Tamas

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2019, 04:18:07 am »
What's Languish's take on this lady? The Trumpists seem to fevereshly mock her which is a great start but other than that I know nothing of her.

Eddie Teach

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2019, 04:30:48 am »
Her great-great-great-grandma was an Injun.

Other than that, she strikes me as Bernie Lite.
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2019, 04:48:09 am »
Anybody but Trump. 

garbon

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2019, 04:59:28 am »
What's Languish's take on this lady? The Trumpists seem to fevereshly mock her which is a great start but other than that I know nothing of her.

:hmm:

Yeah, no one on this board ever speaks about her.
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garbon

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2019, 05:02:46 am »
Anyway to pull this thread more general and away from GC's fan wank.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/424096-biden-likely-to-make-decision-on-2020-run-within-next-two-weeks-report
Quote
Biden likely to make decision on 2020 run within next two weeks: report

Former Vice President Joe Biden (D) is likely to make a decision on whether he will run for the presidency in 2020 within the next two weeks, according to a New York Times report.

Biden has reportedly told those close to him that he does not feel other potential Democratic presidential contenders could beat President Trump

The former vice president has been contacting supporters and allies over the last few weeks, the Times reported.

One Democrat he spoke to recently told the Times that Biden during a phone call said, “If you can persuade me there is somebody better who can win, I’m happy not to do it. But I don’t see the candidate who can clearly do what has to be done to win."

This would be Biden's third White House bid.

Biden has continually topped 2020 polls, often winning about support from a third of those surveyed, but skeptics say that polls this far out from elections often rely on name recognition.

...

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/424082-sherrod-brown-to-make-2020-decision-within-the-next-two-months
Quote
Sherrod Brown to make 2020 decision 'within the next two months,' wife says

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) will decide within the next two months whether he will seek the presidency in 2020, his wife, Connie Schultz, said Sunday.

“I think we’re going to know within the next two months. We have to," Schultz said during an interview on CNN's "Reliable Sources."

Schultz added that Brown won't run if she doesn't "wholeheartedly want to be a part of it all."

“Think of any big decision you’ve made in life," she said. "Unless you’re forced to make instantly, it’s something you have to get used to thinking about. I’m lucky and burdened to be married to a man who will not do this if I don’t wholeheartedly want to be a part of it all. He just won’t.”

Brown, who won reelection last year to the Senate and could give Democrats a chance to recapture the key swing state of Ohio, has previously said that he's "seriously thinking" about making a bid for the Democratic nomination in 2020.

“We’re seriously thinking about it. We’re seriously talking about it with family, with friends and with political allies who have come to me about this," he said in November.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/424095-vermont-newspaper-editorial-board-we-beg-bernie-sanders-not-to-run-in-2020
Quote
Vermont newspaper editorial board: 'We beg' Bernie Sanders not to run in 2020

The editorial board for The Barre-Montpelier Times Argus, a newspaper in Vermont, is urging Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) not to run for president in 2020.

"Bernie Sanders should not run for president. In fact, we beg him not to," the editorial board begins in a piece published on Saturday.

The editorial board, which endorsed Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2016, goes on to say that they have more reasons to be concerned than excited about another Sanders run for the White House. It writes about its fears that a Sanders run for president could divide "the well-fractured Democratic Party, and could lead to another split in the 2020 presidential vote."

"There is too much at stake to take that gamble," the board continues. "If we are going to maintain a two-party system, the mandate needs to be a clear one. There is strength in numbers, and if anything has been shown in recent years, it is that unless tallies are overwhelming, there can always be questions or challenges raised over what 'vote totals' really mean: popular vote vs. Electoral College results.

"For us, this comes down to principle over ego. It is one thing to start a revolution, but at a certain point you need to know when to step out of the way and let others carry the water for you."

The board adds that Sanders has developed a loyal following because of certain progressive policies he's championed. But it says that Sanders has become "exhausting" as a candidate and that his personality is "abrasive."

"He can be dismissive and rude in his arrogance. You are either with Bernie Sanders or you are not," the board writes, before charging that his "no-nonsense approach" is comparable to President Trump's.

The board notes that "all signs point to another run, even with accusations" that aides working on his last presidential campaign experienced sexism and harassment in 2016.

...
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Tamas

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2019, 05:45:21 am »
Her great-great-great-grandma was an Injun.

Other than that, she strikes me as Bernie Lite.

Oh, that's her? Shit.

Tamas

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2019, 05:45:52 am »
What's Languish's take on this lady? The Trumpists seem to fevereshly mock her which is a great start but other than that I know nothing of her.

:hmm:

Yeah, no one on this board ever speaks about her.

Yeah I wasn't really paying attention recently.

Tyr

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2019, 05:49:56 am »
Bernie is great and all. A proper moderate socialist is just what America needs. But he's so damn old. I have little confidence in his survivability.
So what is actually needed is a younger person cut from the same mould. If this woman could be that then fair play.
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jimmy olsen

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2019, 06:46:58 am »
Bernie is great and all. A proper moderate socialist is just what America needs. But he's so damn old. I have little confidence in his survivability.
So what is actually needed is a younger person cut from the same mould. If this woman could be that then fair play.

She's still 69, but there aren't really anyone cut from the same mold in their 50s.
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Admiral Yi

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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2019, 06:47:50 am »
What's Languish's take on this lady? The Trumpists seem to fevereshly mock her which is a great start but other than that I know nothing of her.

She's too feverishly anti-business for me.
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2019, 07:03:30 am »
I've heard Warren is too unlikeable. Is that true?
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2019, 10:44:53 am »
She was a first rate legal scholar, very smart, popular with students and colleagues.

As a Senator she seems to have spent more time and effort using her seat as a pulpit rather than passing legislation. 
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2019, 10:54:53 am »
I've heard Warren is too unlikeable. Is that true?

Not in my experience.  :ph34r:
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Re: US Elections 2020
« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2019, 11:17:55 am »
I've heard Warren is too unlikeable. Is that true?

I disagree with her on most issues (shock) and think she'd be a terrible president for this country, but personality-wise I don't find her that unlikable.  She's definitely no Hillary.  Doesn't even show up on the Hillary scale of unlikability.
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