Author Topic: Mueller Probe endgame  (Read 549 times)

grumbler

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #15 on: April 17, 2018, 11:57:24 am »
I think Before is right.  Mueller's report will not compel a vote for impeachment ...

Since no one knows what will be in the report, you sound like the guy who keeps predicting the world will end on a certain date.

Yeah!  WTF is Yi doing, making predictions in the thread that is explicitly for making predictions?  He should learn from you, and simply criticize people making predictions.
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crazy canuck

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #16 on: April 17, 2018, 12:25:28 pm »
I think Before is right.  Mueller's report will not compel a vote for impeachment ...

Since no one knows what will be in the report, you sound like the guy who keeps predicting the world will end on a certain date.

Yeah!  WTF is Yi doing, making predictions in the thread that is explicitly for making predictions?  He should learn from you, and simply criticize people making predictions.

I agree.  The intelligent way to respond to Raz's inquiry was Jacob's post. I encourage you to read it.
TRUMP: ...My people came to me, Dan Coats came to me and some others and said they think itís Russia. 
I have President Putin. He just said itís not Russia. I will say this. I donít see any reason why it would be, ...So I have great confidence in my intelligence people, but I will tell you that president Putin was extremely strong and powerful in his denial today.

Legbiter

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #17 on: April 17, 2018, 12:39:43 pm »
I think Before is right.  Mueller's report will not compel a vote for impeachment, nor will it crash Trump's popularity with the yahoos enough to facilitate an impeachment vote for those so inclined.  It will definitely generate outrage among Democrats, but that's nothing new.

Aye sounds plausible.


Then if the Democrats win a majority in the House impeachment is certain to pass; there's already enough to easily hang an obstruction of justice charge on Donald.  Then the real drama starts in the Senate.

How was it with Bill Clinton? He was impeached by the House and then, well, nothing much happened. He stayed in the job.
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Admiral Yi

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #18 on: April 17, 2018, 12:48:03 pm »
How was it with Bill Clinton? He was impeached by the House and then, well, nothing much happened. He stayed in the job.

His indictment in the House passed (you just need simple majority) but didn't get the 2/3 in the Senate for conviction.
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The Minsky Moment

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #19 on: April 17, 2018, 01:41:55 pm »
Don Jr. and Kushner are toast.  Presumably Trump pardons them but does that create enough outrage to change Yi's impeachment math?  Probably not.
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Jacob

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2018, 01:47:16 pm »
Don Jr. and Kushner are toast.  Presumably Trump pardons them but does that create enough outrage to change Yi's impeachment math?  Probably not.

If Don Jr. and Kushner are toast in a federal court, might that involve forfeiture of assets and/ or other financial penalties? And if so, is that affected by a pardon?

And do you have any sense of whether the toasting of those two is likely to involve state courts where Trump's pardon is ineffective? And if so, is there potential for a significant financial impact on Don Jr. and Kushner from that?

The Minsky Moment

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2018, 01:58:42 pm »
We already know:

1) The Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government.  The evidence is overwhelming and has been for some time.  DonJr, Kushner, and Manafort all walked into meeting on the premise that the Russian government had illegally collected harmful information to H.C. and was offering that to the campaign.  Some sort of quid pro quo was discussed at the meeting.  Whether that specific deal was taken or not is irrelevant, merely walking into the meeting knowing its purpose was a crime.  We also know both sides subsequently delivered tangible benefits to each other: the platform change on Ukraine from the Trump side, the Wikileaks dump a few days later on the Russian side.  There is also the fact that Trump's campaign manager and leading national security advisor were working as undeclared foreign agents of the Russian state, plus Stone acting as a conduit between the campaign and WikiLeaks.  And that is only what is known and public.

2) Trump is implicated.  He personally dictated a false cover story concerning the Trump Tower meeting, which if he had knowledge about what was discussed, would be obstruction.  He also openly called upon the Russians to conduct illegal espionage operations against Clinton, which in addition to being grotesquely unethical and disqualifying for leadership, also could constitute an overt act in a criminal conspiracy, if it can be proved at the time he know of the nature of his campaign's contacts with the Russians concerning the email hacking and dumps.

Again, this is what is known.

And yet GOP congressman and talking heads can be seem daily, making the preposterous claim that there "no evidence of collusion."  Not: insufficient evidence to prove in a criminal case beyond a reasonable doubt - that would be defensible.  "No evidence."  It is a willful blindness to the facts.  And given that it is willful blindness to the facts, what difference will more facts make?
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derspiess

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2018, 02:19:31 pm »
He also openly called upon the Russians to conduct illegal espionage operations against Clinton, which in addition to being grotesquely unethical and disqualifying for leadership, also could constitute an overt act in a criminal conspiracy, if it can be proved at the time he know of the nature of his campaign's contacts with the Russians concerning the email hacking and dumps.

I understand why, in a partisan context, you are making so much out of this.  But it was a joke.  Trump was not serious.
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Barrister

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2018, 04:31:30 pm »
Word is the Mueller investigation is wrapping up and will produce it's findings some time this summer or possibly sooner.  How do you think this will end?  This is more of predictions thread and thus distinct from the other investigation thread and the general "Oh my God Donald Trump is President" thread.

I think it's unlikely Mueller wraps up before the summer.  He's still trying to flip Manafort after all, and the search of Cohen's office hasn't even really started (which I know isn't by Mueller, but they are working together).In fact given the shitstorm Comey raised by announcing "we have re-opened" the investigation days before the election, I think Mueller waits until after election day to release his report.

Anyways, on election day GOP is slaughtered.  Loses the house, Senate is touch-and-go.  GOP begin to see Trump as an anchor.  Then out comes a damning report on Trump's corruption and collusion.  Dem lead house begins impeachment proceedings, with at least a few GOP senators voicing support.

What I can't predict is if/when Trump just tries to shut down the entire Mueller investigation (and not just fire Mueller personally), and if so what that then means.


Admiral Yi

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2018, 04:37:11 pm »
He's still trying to flip Manafort after all

Why do you say this?  Manafort has already plead out.
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Barrister

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #25 on: April 17, 2018, 04:42:00 pm »
He's still trying to flip Manafort after all

Why do you say this?  Manafort has already plead out.


umm, no.

Quote
Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort has accused federal prosecutors of carrying out an illegal search of his property, according to a court filing late Friday night.

Manafort asked the judge overseeing his case in DC to suppress evidence FBI agents collected from his Alexandria, Virginia, storage unit last May, which was only 10 days after Robert Mueller was appointed as special counsel to look into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.
Manafort has pleaded not guilty to charges related to his foreign lobbying work and other financial decisions before he became Trump campaign chair. Even so, prosecutors have made it clear they are still pursuing other angles of the investigation that involve Manafort, and have fought his team at every step of the case.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/07/politics/paul-manafort-court-filing/index.html

dated April 7

Admiral Yi

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #26 on: April 17, 2018, 04:44:35 pm »
K
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The Minsky Moment

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #27 on: April 17, 2018, 04:59:34 pm »
He also openly called upon the Russians to conduct illegal espionage operations against Clinton, which in addition to being grotesquely unethical and disqualifying for leadership, also could constitute an overt act in a criminal conspiracy, if it can be proved at the time he know of the nature of his campaign's contacts with the Russians concerning the email hacking and dumps.

I understand why, in a partisan context, you are making so much out of this.  But it was a joke.  Trump was not serious.

It was the furthest thing from a joke.  It actually happened, Trump clearly wanted to happen, and there is plenty of evidence that people on his campaign were involved in efforts to make it happen.  It was a stupid and brazen thing to say aloud, but Trump is a stupid and brazen person.
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Maximus

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #28 on: April 17, 2018, 05:12:41 pm »
That's not really fair to Brazen.

Eddie Teach

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Re: Mueller Probe endgame
« Reply #29 on: April 17, 2018, 05:15:58 pm »
Trump wanted it to happen but he didn't expect it to happen.
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