What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[alfred russel]

Tough to pin shooting down the drone on the UAE.

People in the UAE will obviously know if they shot down a drone, and they are a potential source of leaks (or just blabbing on social media), the linkage of physical evidence--while hard--is also possible. Even if it takes 10 years to come out, once it does...

[Admiral Yi]

On the other hand Saudi Arabia has demonstrated it's very adept at covering its tracks in covert operations. 

[Maximus]

Tough to pin shooting down the drone on the UAE.

True, but if it was in Iranian airspace that's hardly proof of Iran getting belligerent.

[Tamas]

Tough to pin shooting down the drone on the UAE.

True, but if it was in Iranian airspace that's hardly proof of Iran getting belligerent.

Indeed. It's interesting to see the gradual switch of the Americans' opinions here on the board. If the government keeps pushing this agenda for two more weeks, most of you guys will be convinced it is an inevitable act of self-defense to bomb Iran to oblivion.

[Razgovory]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

[The Brain]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

Damn Poles always attacking radio stations.

[Tamas]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

If there's a conspiracy theory here, it is the notion of some kind of complex Iranian plan to get out ahead by supplying the US with various casus bellis without causing any actual damage to the US or its allies.

Iran has been fighting an extensive proxy war vs. the Saudis for a long while now. Openly taking on the Saudis most reliable ally, who also happens to be the only global military superpower is insanely stupid and the ONLY possible route for the regime to lose power in the short to mid term. There is absolutely no way they are looking for this confrontation.

While your great President has quite clearly declared the effort to negotiate with Iran to be a waste of time and a "terrible deal".

[Razgovory]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

If there's a conspiracy theory here, it is the notion of some kind of complex Iranian plan to get out ahead by supplying the US with various casus bellis without causing any actual damage to the US or its allies.

Iran has been fighting an extensive proxy war vs. the Saudis for a long while now. Openly taking on the Saudis most reliable ally, who also happens to be the only global military superpower is insanely stupid and the ONLY possible route for the regime to lose power in the short to mid term. There is absolutely no way they are looking for this confrontation.

While your great President has quite clearly declared the effort to negotiate with Iran to be a waste of time and a "terrible deal".

No, the Iranians having a motive is not a conspiracy theory.  Simply because we don't know what the motive is doesn't mean they don't have one.

Your analysis is faulty.  War is not the ONLY possible end of the regime.  The protests back in 2009 are a pretty good example of what another end of the regime could look like.  Simply put, the US doesn't have the resources conquer Iran in the short term.  There is very little interest in the US for war against Iran and I imagine the Iranians are well aware of this.  The Invasion of Iraq required nearly half a million US soldiers and Iran has three times the population and much, much more land.  Shifting the required personnel and material into the theater for an invasion of Iran would take months and may not even be possible.

The US can launch airstrikes on Iran, but that won't go over very well politically anywhere out side of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel.  Such an action would isolate the US even further and weaken Trump domestically.  You are also incorrect in saying that Trump refuses to talk to the Iranians.  He has recently stated he would open negotiations with Iran without any preconditions.  The Iranians have not taken him up on the offer.  I don't know why.  International policy is frequently based on domestic realities, and I don't know much about their internal politics.  They may be just ratcheting up the pressure before agreeing to talk.

I suspect Iranians are pushing the boundaries to see how far they can go.  Why?  I don't know, but Trump's weakness and the talks with North Korea are probably factors.

[DGuller]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

That kind of attitude is what enables conspiracies.  If every talk of conspiracy is crazy nonsense, then how is anyone supposed to blow the whistle on the real conspiracy?  Just because some claims of false flag operations are clearly crazed ravings doesn't mean that all are.

[Berkut]

I dislike conspiracy theories.  You start talking about "False Flags" and I put you in the same category as Alex Jones.

If there's a conspiracy theory here, it is the notion of some kind of complex Iranian plan to get out ahead by supplying the US with various casus bellis without causing any actual damage to the US or its allies.

Iran has been fighting an extensive proxy war vs. the Saudis for a long while now. Openly taking on the Saudis most reliable ally, who also happens to be the only global military superpower is insanely stupid and the ONLY possible route for the regime to lose power in the short to mid term. There is absolutely no way they are looking for this confrontation.

While your great President has quite clearly declared the effort to negotiate with Iran to be a waste of time and a "terrible deal".

I think you are discounting the fact that Iran has not in the past shown much in the way of complete control over their own often hard line military.

[FunkMonk]

I have no evidence to support this, but I have a hunch a nervous (or stupid, or brash, or all of the above) SAM site commander made an executive decision to shoot down the drone without approval from Tehran, and everything afterward has been posturing from both sides.

There is probably evidence that refutes this, I just haven't been paying much attention to this situation since the event happened.

[Habbaku]

What's the point in paying attention? It's pretty out of our hands. Trump will either get us all killed or not.

[frunk]

That kind of attitude is what enables conspiracies.  If every talk of conspiracy is crazy nonsense, then how is anyone supposed to blow the whistle on the real conspiracy?  Just because some claims of false flag operations are clearly crazed ravings doesn't mean that all are.

The key for me is that conspiracies require a significant amount of evidence to take seriously.  It's too easy to throw around the claim with little to back it up so the burden of proof is much higher.  In the case of the second tanker attack there isn't enough evidence to claim a false flag, but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand because there's little indication atm who perpetrated it.  Without more evidence I'd guess the most likely culprit is Iranian hardliners trying to disrupt the Japanese attempt at negotiation.

[viper37]

Why would Iran get belligerent? They stand to gain nothing and to lose everything.

Belligerence doesn't require all out war, but regardless I'm torn between two possible answers:

a) Because the government is ridiculous and needs to sustain its external enemies to avoid a critical mass of public discontent, or

b) why would we assume the government is a rational actor?

Are you talking about the United States or Iran? 

[Eddie Teach]

The US government's enemies are internal.