Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

Anyways it's all going to be ok. Boris Johnson has declared that according to Article 50, the EU is legally obliged to negotiate a trade deal with Britain.

[Josquius]

The Britain as Singapore stuff is very feasible which is very worrying indeed.
Britain as Singapore of course means London as Singapore...with the rest being unnecessary hinterland. A breeding ground for bodies to fill jobs little better than in the Victorian age.
The Tories have past form with making immigration quite easy for the rich whilst stopping it for the poor.

But if you've got in demand skills then you can watch the streets burn from your penthouse paid for with the massively artificially inflated wages you're now enjoying.

It doesn't work that way. I'm in the 90 percentile. Someone in my position will be in a similar place in the UK. We don't need to work overtime to live comfortably. Most of us would rather get home to see our friends, families or even play videogames than stay doing overtime because Lazlo, Pepe and Piotr went back home.

I don't get it.
Companies having to pay top people more would also tie in with having to give them better conditions in general.

To put myself forth as an example:

I'm in charge of manufacturing processes for certain product. Projected sales are around 300 million € give or take. Had I not been hired, either my colleagues would have had to work overtime to compensate (and then you risk losing them), or the company might decide not to bid for the contract and around a hundred million €s worth of blue collar workers would be laid off (plus impact on local suppliers).

I'm just one guy, Now imagine what happens when a sizable portion of your highly skilled vacancies are not filled.

I was thinking more in pure white collar jobs.
As mentioned the Tories want to make Britain into a new Singapore.
Excellent news for the top 5% selling their aether.
Less so for the average joe.

[Zanza]

https://www.ft.com/content/266e996a-948f-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0

Theresa May, UK prime minister, is planning to use a major speech in Europe this month to set out her proposals for a "no cliff-edge" Brexit transition deal, with ministers saying any interim agreement must be "as close as possible" to current relations.

While that message will resonate well with business and Brussels, Mrs May will deliver a much tougher missive to the Conservative party conference a few days later, promising Eurosceptics that her end goal is still to deliver a "clean" Brexit.

I don't get what the point of this approach is. If she gives conflicting messages, that will just increase the impression that she has no clue what she wants to achieve and how.
Now seems to be a good time to square the circle and to spell out to both EU and her party how she wants to combine a clean Brexit and an as close as possible cooperation with the EU.

The EU will base its policy on speech she gives to her party conference,  the right wing of the Tories will base its policies on the speech she gives in Brussels (or wherever) as both sides will feel that they rather prepare for her extreme positions for their respective perspective.

[Josquius]

Yet again I'm given cause to be ashamed to be British as the country continues its slide towards dictatorship.
Why can't we be a democracy

[Josquius]

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41342306

Florence, a warning from history

"It's too late. The emergency glass has been broken and the button has been pressed."
That was what one senior financier told me at a recent dinner when I asked him about his Brexit contingency plans.
It was a view widely shared around a table of banking, insurance and private equity top brass.
The majority of the fifteen or so said they were planning for a no deal, no transition, cliff-edge scenario.
"It's the only sensible thing we can do given the progress made so far," said another.
Most did not even think there was time to negotiate the terms of a transition deal, and even if there was, it would not stop them carrying through with their contingency plans.
Last chance saloon
The industry group that represents these people, TheCityUK, is calling on the government to agree an off-the-shelf, whole economy, status quo transition deal urgently, and tell me there is a strong feeling among members that Theresa May's speech in Florence, and the next round of negotiations, will be the last chance to agree a damage-limiting deal.
It is perhaps unsurprising that the warnings from an industry lobbying group are getting more shrill as time slips by.

They are paid by their members to do the complaining about government that they can't do in public themselves.
What is more surprising is the level of resignation in private among the financial community that contingency plans cannot and will not now be reversed.
Repercussions
So far, the publicly disclosed number of financial services jobs to move from the UK is just under 10,000.
That is under 3% of the total number of people employed in finance in London and around 1% of those employed in the UK as a whole.
Hardly an exodus - more of a trickle, and I am often reminded on social media that there are many people in the country who would happily give a few departing bankers a lift to the airport.
But any erosion of a sector that accounts for 8% of GDP, 12% of all tax and 29% of all exports will have repercussions for the wealth and health of the nation.
The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is considered a contributing factor to a decline in prime London residential values of 10% in some areas and construction experts are predicting a decline in new commercial building (although that decline hasn't shown up in the data so far).
As one chief executive told me, "we are placing a few buckets around Europe, we will pour a little now - and then we can add to it if we need over time.
There will be no flood but you know a persistent leak can damage the value of any property".
Domestic pull
There is an important caveat to these dread warnings.
Around the table, not one of my dinner companions wanted to leave the UK.
A lot is made of the mobility of global capital - but global capital doesn't have partners, kids and lifestyles they like.
That is why there will be no exodus. No one really wants to go and no alternative destination could accommodate them even if they wanted to. This is not about day one - its about year ten.
Once upon a time, Florence was the financial capital of Europe.
Five hundred years later it is London. Groups that represent the modern equivalent are warning London faces a long term decline in its pre-eminent position unless it acts now.
Even if the government heeds today's call to action and agrees a transition deal quickly, many in the financial services industry feel it is getting a bit late to fix the roof.

Shame it doesn't make more of the headline. As that is an interesting thought.

[The Brain]

"More time plz" is a message of strength.

[Tamas]

"More time plz" is a message of strength.

What I have taken from the speech is "We understand that it will take time to work out a deal that gives us everything we want, without requiring any compromise from us. That is fine, we are cool with that, take your time."

[Josquius]

So Theresa May makes a speech on reasons to remain in the EU.


Encouraging though not great. I noted the wording of a 2 year transition after we leave the EU.... Hope the EU slap that one down. The official date of leaving should be the official date of leaving. The only reason May and co are saying it this way is to stave off those who will keep fighting during those 2 years.

[Tamas]

So Theresa May makes a speech on reasons to remain in the EU.


Encouraging though not great. I noted the wording of a 2 year transition after we leave the EU.... Hope the EU slap that one down. The official date of leaving should be the official date of leaving. The only reason May and co are saying it this way is to stave off those who will keep fighting during those 2 years.

So you support a cliff edge Brexit then? Meaning you want the UK to have just 18 months to agree to every single piece of legislation governing every aspect of trade and migration etc AND implement every single one of it including the forming of new authorities, the building of custom check points, etc? Just the theoretical part took 7 years with Canada, mate.

[Josquius]

So Theresa May makes a speech on reasons to remain in the EU.


Encouraging though not great. I noted the wording of a 2 year transition after we leave the EU.... Hope the EU slap that one down. The official date of leaving should be the official date of leaving. The only reason May and co are saying it this way is to stave off those who will keep fighting during those 2 years.

So you support a cliff edge Brexit then? Meaning you want the UK to have just 18 months to agree to every single piece of legislation governing every aspect of trade and migration etc AND implement every single one of it including the forming of new authorities, the building of custom check points, etc? Just the theoretical part took 7 years with Canada, mate.

How do you get that?

I steadfastly oppose brexit. The longer it can be delayed, the longer we can resist, the better it will be for all concerned.
Considerably more hope stays alive with a 4 year time table (oh the demographic shifts that will occur....) rather than 2.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The long transition option is very useful when it comes to the money problem. If we don't really leave till 2020/21 then the current EU budget will have run its course and any remaining sums owing will be piffling in comparison.

I'm not too sure you should place your hope in demographic shifts Tyr; the country is actually getting older so if oldness=brexiteer then the anti-EU forces could be strengthened. Waiting for old reactionaries to die off has always been a losing battle as there is a process of continual recruitment to their ranks.

[garbon]

The long transition option is very useful when it comes to the money problem. If we don't really leave till 2020/21 then the current EU budget will have run its course and any remaining sums owing will be piffling in comparison.

I'm not too sure you should place your hope in demographic shifts Tyr; the country is actually getting older so if oldness=brexiteer then the anti-EU forces could be strengthened. Waiting for old reactionaries to die off has always been a losing battle as there is a process of continual recruitment to their ranks.

Wouldn't that depend on the issue? Say for gay marriage, unlikely as you get older than you are going to become more opposed to it - if you previously supported it.

[Josquius]

The long transition option is very useful when it comes to the money problem. If we don't really leave till 2020/21 then the current EU budget will have run its course and any remaining sums owing will be piffling in comparison.

I'm not too sure you should place your hope in demographic shifts Tyr; the country is actually getting older so if oldness=brexiteer then the anti-EU forces could be strengthened. Waiting for old reactionaries to die off has always been a losing battle as there is a process of continual recruitment to their ranks.

It's like the old saying about young people being socialist and old people being conservative.
It's not that people get particularly more right wing as they get older, it's just the centre shifts leftwards and yesterday's radical "Let gay people do what they want in the comfort of their own home" becomes today's backwards.
There might be a slight wobble towards pro-brexit as under 24s become under 35s and become disillusioned and indoctrinated, but I don't see the under 35s all suddenly becoming ardent racists as soon as they hit 36.

Not that we need to rely on demographics. As it was the result was a complete fluke, totally within the margin of error, and on 9 out of 10 days it would have gone the other way. More than enough people who voted brexit without giving it much thought and even some people who were completely convinced of it (lexiters...) are shifting their views.

More than an opportunity to fight the stripping of our rights another good thing about stretching out leaving as long as possible is it gives extra graduating years time to get their lives started. This is the thing that really pisses me off about the leave voting old. They're not only stealing the long term future of the young but they're ruining the critical early years of their career too.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think I'd agree with you both, though there is always the risk of a sudden reversal. The 19th century saw a generally improving trend in attitudes to other parts of humanity but this went badly wrong in the first half of the 20th century.

[Tamas]

I don't think the transitional period will make any changes to things like fresh graduates getting a chance of grabbing a job in a still-in-EU environment. Once the deal is known companies will react to it. Hopefully the reaction will be to stay put and resume investing in Britain, but if not they are going to use the transitional period to GTFO in a convenient tempo.

I remember reading a journalist allegedly talked to corporate people in Florence who said to them it is now more or less irrelevant what the final deal is going to be. With 18 months left with no progress at all so far, they have to plan for a cliff edge Brexit regardless of the final outcome.