Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM

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How would you vote on Britain remaining in the EU?

British- Remain
12 (12%)
British - Leave
7 (7%)
Other European - Remain
21 (21%)
Other European - Leave
6 (6%)
ROTW - Remain
34 (34%)
ROTW - Leave
20 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 98

Josquius

Thinking about it I don't see Irish unification happening.
All polls suggest support for the status quo is heavy. Northern Irish are entitled to Irish passports anyway, it's just the Northern Irish economy that is the important factor. I'd be interested in data on where it's trade goes. If it is mostly south then that changes things.

Certainly though Ireland looks to get messy.
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Valmy

One of the big bonuses of the EU was that it made Ireland sort of united but sort of not united in a way that seemed to vaguely satisfy everybody. But since that is going away soon there we go.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Valmy

Quote from: Jacob on April 20, 2017, 12:51:55 PM
Quote from: Valmy on April 20, 2017, 12:29:53 PM
When Ireland is among the most pro-British you might have a problem.

Not really... Ireland is one of the EU countries that stands to lose the most from a harder Brexit.

It was a joke Jake.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Richard Hakluyt

Quote from: Tyr on April 28, 2017, 10:35:43 AM
Thinking about it I don't see Irish unification happening.
All polls suggest support for the status quo is heavy. Northern Irish are entitled to Irish passports anyway, it's just the Northern Irish economy that is the important factor. I'd be interested in data on where it's trade goes. If it is mostly south then that changes things.

Certainly though Ireland looks to get messy.

It would require a majority on both side of the border to re-unify. Currently the rest of the UK sends about £9bn a year in subsidies to NI. That would have to continue, perhaps tapering away over a longish period, even after Irish re-unification as that bill would be crippling to Ireland.

Valmy

Are you suggesting the UK would pay to have Ireland take NI off their hands?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Richard Hakluyt

No, I'm saying that it would be a necessary component for Irish re-unification.

Jacob

Quote from: Valmy on April 28, 2017, 10:37:54 AM
It was a joke Jake.

I see. Very good then. Carry on.

Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: Zanza on April 20, 2017, 12:24:34 PM


MOST EU member states believe that Britain's withdrawal from the bloc must be costly, and that any future trade arrangement must offer the departing country worse terms than full membership did. An index devised by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), our sister company, gauges the views of EU states on the four core negotiating issues: the amount of money Britain will have to pay to leave; the four EU freedoms (movement of goods, services, workers and capital); trade arrangements and tariff barriers; and defence ties. The EIU's analysts have assessed the stance of each of the EU members to generate a score out of 40, and then classified the countries into three clusters: "hard-core", "hard" and "soft".

Of the seven "hard-core" countries, the sternest of all is France, which has the highest score in the index at 32.5. This cluster mixes the traditional Anglophobes, Belgium and France, with the poorest member states, Bulgaria and Romania, who are concerned about both free movement and the budget. It also includes Germany, which sees itself as the custodian of the EU's future cohesion.

A plurality of countries fall into the 12-member "hard" category, with scores of 25‑30, which indicate fairly strong opposition to Britain's position. The final eight EU members, with scores below 25, make up the "soft" category. They include some which share Britain's liberal position on trade and EU regulation—such as Sweden and Denmark. It also includes Ireland, with whom Britain has close historical and trade ties. The Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Poland, which are most exposed to threats from Russia, put a premium on Britain's contribution to the defence and security of the continent.

Nonetheless, even the countries most sympathetic to Britain have limits on how generous they will allow the terms of Brexit to be. If nothing else, the importance of maintaining warm relations with the remaining EU members will dissuade them from undermining the group's overall negotiating position.

Belgian stance is -as Always- the francophone stance as they barely trade with the UK. 86% of Belgian trade with UK is Flemish.
It's basically the Canadian Free Trade agreement all over again: Francophones shitting on the people who pay their bills.

Valmy

They know that what is best for Germany and France is best for Belgium.

You have to admit that constantly pissing off one or the other and expecting the British to save you has had an uneven record of success.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Crazy_Ivan80

Quote from: Valmy on April 28, 2017, 02:46:14 PM
They know that what is best for Germany and France is best for Belgium.

You have to admit that constantly pissing off one or the other and expecting the British to save you has had an uneven record of success.

Francophones don't have a clue about what is best for Belgium. They do know how to leech though.

grumbler

Quote from: Valmy on April 28, 2017, 02:46:14 PM
They know that what is best for Germany and France is best for Belgium.

You have to admit that constantly pissing off one or the other and expecting the British to save you has had an uneven record of success.

Wait... what?  Is this another one of your jokes that is opaque and so not humorous?
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Valmy

Quote from: grumbler on April 29, 2017, 05:31:39 PM
Wait... what?  Is this another one of your jokes that is opaque and so not humorous?

Is it opaque? Anyway not every joke is going to land. Just trying to lighten the mood from the ethnic rage.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Ed Anger

Quote from: Valmy on April 30, 2017, 02:53:05 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 29, 2017, 05:31:39 PM
Wait... what?  Is this another one of your jokes that is opaque and so not humorous?

Is it opaque? Anyway not every joke is going to land. Just trying to lighten the mood from the ethnic rage.

Well, stop that.

Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

grumbler

Quote from: Valmy on April 30, 2017, 02:53:05 PM
Quote from: grumbler on April 29, 2017, 05:31:39 PM
Wait... what?  Is this another one of your jokes that is opaque and so not humorous?

Is it opaque? Anyway not every joke is going to land. Just trying to lighten the mood from the ethnic rage.

Belgium hasn't pissed anybody off (except each other, of course) and it hasn't even existed as a country, historically.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Liep

The leaked information from the May - Juncker meeting is either amusing, worrying, both or false.

https://twitter.com/jeremycliffe/status/858810953353367552
"Af alle latterlige Ting forekommer det mig at være det allerlatterligste at have travlt" - Kierkegaard

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