Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[crazy canuck]

Now do the math BB.  Brain is roughly correct.

the real problem with Brain's per capita calculation is that it does not account for the emissions per barrel of oil.  That is Canada's problem.

I'm just going to quote this here for posterity's sake...


To be fair to Brain, when I first looked up the figures I thought he was right - but then I realized that the graph I was looking at (which listed about 5,100 barrels of oil) was denominated in the number of thousands of barrels of oil.  I confirmed it with the text accompanying it.

Decimal places can be tricky sometimes.

I think that is what got me, when I checked his math.  I did not think he could possibly be right but when I checked I think I made the same mistake he did - I just assumed the figures I had used were the ones you posted.

[Maximus]

Oil per capita is a ratio. A factor of 100 is clearly a greater difference than a factor of 3.

[Syt]

So Austria does a small reform of income taxes, and as part of that there'll be a Carbon tax. The tax will rise over the next years from 35/ton CO2 in 2022, to 55/ton CO2 in 2025. In turn, households will receive a climate rebate of 100 EUR per adult and 50 per child. The idea, obviously, to incentivize people to try and save on the tax to retain more of the benefit.

So far so good, but it wouldn't be Austria if there weren't exceptions. "Places with bad public transport connection" will receive special benefits to not punish them unduly for relying on cars.

This has raised some questions whether that's really fair - e.g. a manager living in a nice house in the countryside with his family might get an additional rebate, while a single mom who lives in a rental apartment in Vienna and heats with an old, inefficient gas boiler that her landlord refuses to replace might end up paying more.

Austria will incentivize people to switch away from oil heating (I don't think that's common in Vienna, but might be in the countryside). The Greens were pushing for adjusting the tax for diesel fuel (currently the tax on diesel is over 25% lower than on other car fuel), but couldn't get it through.

[Valmy]

Well the whole point of a carbon tax is to motivate people not to pay it...by using less carbon. Giving them loopholes provides motivations alright just not the right ones.

[grumbler]

Well the whole point of a carbon tax is to motivate people not to pay it...by using less carbon. Giving them loopholes provides motivations alright just not the right ones.

Yeah, incentivize electric cars, not carbon-spewing ones.

[viper37]

This has raised some questions whether that's really fair - e.g. a manager living in a nice house in the countryside with his family might get an additional rebate, while a single mom who lives in a rental apartment in Vienna and heats with an old, inefficient gas boiler that her landlord refuses to replace might end up paying more.

True, but it would be unfair to pay a tax when you have no alternatrive.

The single mom in a rental apartment will pay more for her rent, but she will have the option of moving elsewhere where a landlord might adopt another type of heating.

I could be tempted to be in favor of some increases for existing social aids, or maybe even some new, to people in this situation, but then that would diminish the pressure on the landlord to change its heating system since his tenants would be subsidized for his bad choices...  Not a very practical solution.

[Syt]

The single mom in a rental apartment will pay more for her rent, but she will have the option of moving elsewhere where a landlord might adopt another type of heating.

I could be tempted to be in favor of some increases for existing social aids, or maybe even some new, to people in this situation, but then that would diminish the pressure on the landlord to change its heating system since his tenants would be subsidized for his bad choices...  Not a very practical solution.

That's the thing, there's no incentive for landlords to change anything because all running costs and maintenance are covered by the tenant. My previous apartment's gas boiler was from the 70s. My current is "only" from ca. mid-90s. As long as they're running, they're rarely replaced (unless there's a full renovation). About half of Vienna households are heating and have hot water like this.

New apartments usually have central heating for the whole building (though not always) or remote heating, but they're more expensive.

I agree that softening the blow of the new regulations (at least for a while) makes sense, but the way it's implemented it only asks "do you possibly need a car" instead of looking at a broader approach. Even so, other big cities in Austria will still get a higher subsidy than Vienna despite having similarly good public transport, which leads some to see it as another example of the ÖVP dunking on Vienna. Meanwhile they keep pushing for more roads and highways while public transport in rural areas is cut back.

[Sheilbh]

I agree that softening the blow of the new regulations (at least for a while) makes sense, but the way it's implemented it only asks "do you possibly need a car" instead of looking at a broader approach. Even so, other big cities in Austria will still get a higher subsidy than Vienna despite having similarly good public transport, which leads some to see it as another example of the ÖVP dunking on Vienna. Meanwhile they keep pushing for more roads and highways while public transport in rural areas is cut back.

I think it's the domestic bit of the wider climate justice piece. There will be new costs and I think it is essential to make sure those are distributed in a progressive because I think otherwise you wil end up with resistance to measures necessary for the energy transition.

That sort of happened with the gilets jaunes and I think too many people have learned the wrong lesson - which is that environmental measures are risky, rather than environmental measures that don't also have support for the poorest (particularly if the rest of the economy is not great for them at that time).

[Josquius]

It is the big problem with this stuff.
We want to incentivise people to do away with their cats. Though obviously if you live in a rural area it's unavoidable that you need a car to live.
The trouble is if we set up taxes in a way to allow for this then may it not just encourage rich people to move to rural areas... Which isn't what we want.
This is becoming pretty relative now with the back to the office vs work from home forever movement. There's talk of extra payments for going into the office....which is really just encouraging people to live in an inconvenient place.

[mongers]

Last month was the 2nd warmest September ever recorded in the UK.   

[Valmy]

Last month was the 2nd warmest September ever recorded in the UK.   

Was the warmest last year?

[Valmy]

True, but it would be unfair to pay a tax when you have no alternatrive.

Do electric cars not exist? They are not even particularly expensive at this point.

Now maybe they need to be more specifically designed for rural use, but the whole point is to incentivize private actors to solve the problem out of self-interest. The whole point is to unlock human ingenuity to find alternatives.

[viper37]

That's the thing, there's no incentive for landlords to change anything because all running costs and maintenance are covered by the tenant. My previous apartment's gas boiler was from the 70s. My current is "only" from ca. mid-90s. As long as they're running, they're rarely replaced (unless there's a full renovation). About half of Vienna households are heating and have hot water like this.

If, as a landlord, my cost increase and I shift the rent to my tenants, there comes a point where other buildings will be much cheaper than mine.  People will move and I'll have a higher vacancy rate than my competitors.

[Josquius]

Viper - interesting you assume renters have a free choice of where to live.
Vienna I understand has quite a housing supply problem

True, but it would be unfair to pay a tax when you have no alternatrive.

Do electric cars not exist? They are not even particularly expensive at this point.

Now maybe they need to be more specifically designed for rural use, but the whole point is to incentivize private actors to solve the problem out of self-interest. The whole point is to unlock human ingenuity to find alternatives.

They do.
But the idea we can just sub our petrol cars one to one with electric cars and keep society exactly as it is is misplaced.

[viper37]

Do electric cars not exist? They are not even particularly expensive at this point.

Now maybe they need to be more specifically designed for rural use, but the whole point is to incentivize private actors to solve the problem out of self-interest. The whole point is to unlock human ingenuity to find alternatives.

they exist in limited quantities and not in enough model variations, as we speak, to satisfy market needs.

To get the equivalent comfort of my car, currently, on a 100k$ Tesla would satisfy me.  That's way to high for my tastes and modest means. 

But give it a few more years and it's going to change.  Much more models are announced for the near future.  It's just that right now, alternatives are limited.  And since cities are proposing that their citizens adopt urban transport, it ain't fair to tax people with no such service, or a very defficient one.  Electric cars eliminate CO2 pollution, but not traffic jams or road degradation.