The Boy Who Cried Robot: A World Without Work

Started by jimmy olsen, June 28, 2015, 12:26:12 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

What should we do if automation renders most people permanently unemployed?

Negative Income Tax
26 (52%)
Communist command economy directed by AI
7 (14%)
Purge/sterilize the poor
3 (6%)
The machines will eradicate us, so why worry about unemployment?
7 (14%)
Other, please specify
7 (14%)

Total Members Voted: 49

Valmy

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 22, 2017, 12:22:30 PM
If the future of our workforce was supposed to be fastfood counter service, we were already screwed to begin with.

Are you under the impression that if this works no other service industries will adopt it as well?
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Tonitrus

We knew this was coming for a while now.  In fact, it's a couple years overdue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAEU-Lf60LA

Admiral Yi


viper37

Quote from: Valmy on June 22, 2017, 01:03:36 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on June 22, 2017, 12:22:30 PM
If the future of our workforce was supposed to be fastfood counter service, we were already screwed to begin with.

Are you under the impression that if this works no other service industries will adopt it as well?
I think what he means is, we should be worried as much for the people holding cashier jobs in fastfood joints then we were about the blacksmiths losing their jobs after the widespread adoption of the car, or typographers or the people lighting the gaz lamps in the cities.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Valmy

So we should be very concerned about potentially socially destabilizing impacts of rapidly changing technology and economic system? Well I agree.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

DGuller

There are smart ways to react and there are stupid ways.  "Automation will destroy many existing jobs, so we need to make sure people have good safety nets to deal with the transition" is the smart way.  "OMG, we're all fucked, automation will destroy most jobs" is not.

Monoriu

Quote from: jimmy olsen on June 22, 2017, 10:08:37 AM
Suck it Minsky, the proletarian youth is screwed.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/20/mcdonalds-hits-all-time-high-as-wall-street-cheers-replacement-of-cashiers-with-kiosks.html

QuoteMcDonald's hits all-time high as Wall Street cheers replacement of cashiers with kiosks

Cowen says McDonald's will upgrade 2,500 restaurants to its "Experience of the Future" technology by year-end, which includes digital ordering kiosks.


The firm raises its rating on McDonald's to outperform from market perform and price target for the shares to $180 from $142.

Same store sales estimate for 2018 raised to 3 percent from 2 percent.

Tae Kim   | @firstadopter
Tuesday, 20 Jun 2017 | 11:30 AM ET


McDonald's shares hit an all-time high on Tuesday as Wall Street expects sales to increase from new digital ordering kiosks that will replace cashiers in 2,500 restaurants.

Cowen raised its rating on McDonald's shares to outperform from market perform because of the technology upgrades, which are slated for the fast-food chain's restaurants this year.

McDonald's shares rallied 26 percent this year through Monday compared to the S&P 500's 10 percent return.

Andrew Charles from Cowen cited plans for the restaurant chain to roll out mobile ordering across 14,000 U.S. locations by the end of 2017. The technology upgrades, part of what McDonald's calls "Experience of the Future," includes digital ordering kiosks that will be offered in 2,500 restaurants by the end of the year and table delivery.

"MCD is cultivating a digital platform through mobile ordering and Experience of the Future (EOTF), an in-store technological overhaul most conspicuous through kiosk ordering and table delivery," Charles wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. "Our analysis suggests efforts should bear fruit in 2018 with a combined 130 bps [basis points] contribution to U.S. comps [comparable sales]."

He raised his 2018 U.S. same store sales growth estimate for the fast-food chain to 3 percent from 2 percent.

The analyst raised his price target for McDonald's to $180 from $142, representing 17.5 percent upside from Monday's close. He also raised his 2018 earnings-per-share forecast to $6.87 from $6.71 versus the Wall Street consensus of $6.83.

"MCD has done a great job launching popular innovations within the context of simplifying the menu, while introducing more effective value initiatives that have recently begun to improve the brand's value perceptions," he wrote.

My workplace is right next to the so-called first McDonald's in the world that adopts the future/kiosks thing.  I really don't notice that they have cut staff.  Sure, there are fewer cashiers.  But I think they employ even more people than before.  They need people to take the meals to the customers.  They need people to teach people how to use the kiosks.  They now adopt complicated menus and allow self-designed hamburgers so that they now appear to need more staff in the kitchens to handle the more complex and time-consuming orders. 

Syt

We've had the kiosks for a while, and they seem to work out well. Apparently, the "design your own burger" concept was first developed in Austria.
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

Barrister

Whether you believe them or not, but McD's said when they were installing those kiosks in Edmonton that they were actually hiring additional staff for all of those reasons.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Josquius

I like the kiosks. Allows me to avoid having to deal with French.
██████
██████
██████

Ed Anger

I prefer my service from a sassy negress.
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

CountDeMoney

Then maybe you should've bought your plantation down Alabama way instead of Soviet Frenchistan.

DontSayBanana

Quote from: Barrister on June 23, 2017, 12:30:48 PM
Whether you believe them or not, but McD's said when they were installing those kiosks in Edmonton that they were actually hiring additional staff for all of those reasons.

Yes, I've had this discussion regarding self-driving trucks. It's not so much a labor reduction as a labor shift if you don't automate the ENTIRE process. Kiosks = less wait time = more orders to fill at any given time = more kitchen staff to prep orders, the same way self-driving trucks = more frequent shipments = higher volume to unload = more receiving personnel at the receiving end and more order pickers/packers at the sending end.

The problems are the wage reduction from reducing jobs that pay more and expanding jobs that pay less.  The company's viewpoint is that workers haven't earned their share of the increased profits, so rather than prop their workforce up with better wages, they crow about reduced labor costs as bottom-line growth.
Experience bij!

jimmy olsen

Quote from: DontSayBanana on June 25, 2017, 09:01:51 AM
Quote from: Barrister on June 23, 2017, 12:30:48 PM
Whether you believe them or not, but McD's said when they were installing those kiosks in Edmonton that they were actually hiring additional staff for all of those reasons.

Yes, I've had this discussion regarding self-driving trucks. It's not so much a labor reduction as a labor shift if you don't automate the ENTIRE process. Kiosks = less wait time = more orders to fill at any given time = more kitchen staff to prep orders, the same way self-driving trucks = more frequent shipments = higher volume to unload = more receiving personnel at the receiving end and more order pickers/packers at the sending end.

The problems are the wage reduction from reducing jobs that pay more and expanding jobs that pay less.  The company's viewpoint is that workers haven't earned their share of the increased profits, so rather than prop their workforce up with better wages, they crow about reduced labor costs as bottom-line growth.
They are going to automate as much as they can, this is just the beginning.

They are testing burger making machines I believe.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Eddie Teach

This is actually a good thing, we just need new social structures to share the abundance more equitably.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?