Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Separately I'm pretty underwhelmed by this announcement. As noted NPR was announced in 2014. It was built around HS3 and would involve the construction of a new high speed rail line in the North, plus an upgrade of the existing line. Eleven years later and zero miles of new track have been built.

Instead the government is going to do the upgrade and re-brand it as NPR (I'm very doubtful phase 2 will ever happen far less the planned Manchester-Birmingham line). Apparently the Northern Labour Mayors are pretty underwhelmed by this but central HQ are putting a lot of pressure on them to back it.

Separately I feel like the whole government's plan on economics and growth kind of relies on two things. One is capital spending and the other is planning reform. I'm really not convinced. On planning we're eighteen months into the parliament and they're still at the consultation phase. And with this their plan is to spend £1.1 billion on planning and consultation which won't even be finished by the time of the next election - with the goal of upgrading the rail in the region in 20 years time Maybe the line of argument about democracies being too susceptible to short-term electoral pressures and autocracies being able to take a long view has it diametrically wrong (I am slightly reminded of the whole Abundance argument but also Buttigieg complaining that there was a huge infrastructure bill passed by Congress under Biden and by the time of the election very little of it had actually been spent because of the amount of proces and consultations etc - see also the Economist piece recently on the "stakeholder state").

I'd add to this it feels slightly like they've learned all the wrong lessons from HS2:

Politics UK
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 BREAKING: The Government has revived the Northern Powerhouse Rail project with routes linking Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield

The scheme won't be completed until at least 2045 and has a £45bn funding cap

A Birmingham-Manchester rail link is planned after that

An initial £1.1bn has been allocated for planning, design and preparation work during this Parliament, with construction not expected to begin until after 2030

Northern Powerhouse Rail was first proposed by George Osborne in 2014, but much of the promised investment was later scaled back

The project will be delivered in phases:

- Phase one focuses on upgrades to existing routes, improving capacity and journey times between Leeds, York, Bradford and Sheffield, alongside early development work on related schemes such as the Leamside Line in the North East

- Phase two involves the construction of a new Liverpool–Manchester rail line, running via Warrington and Manchester Airport, forming the backbone of the network

- Phase three will deliver further trans-Pennine upgrades, strengthening connections between Manchester and cities across Yorkshire, including Leeds, Bradford and Sheffield, with onward services to York, Newcastle and Hull

Keir Starmer said: "I spent three happy years in Leeds as a university student, a vibrant city I was proud to call home. But I've seen first hand what underinvestment and empty pledges do to cities across the North.

"A reliable commute, a secure job, a thriving town centre - these are all things that everyone should expect. But over and over again people in Northern communities, from Liverpool and Manchester to York and Newcastle have been let down by broken promises.

"This cycle has to end. No more paying lip service to the potential of the North, but backing it to the hilt.

"That's why this government is rolling up its sleeves to deliver real, lasting change for millions of people through Northern Powerhouse Rail: a major new rail network across the North that will deliver faster, more frequent services.

"This investment is proof we're putting our money where our mouth is, working with local leaders to deliver the transport links that will help working people do what they need to in life – getting to work, taking the kids to school, or days out with the family"

Also even on Starmer's own rhtoric "a reliable commute" - in ten to twenty years time (assuming at least five years of construction after the planning stage). Also not sure the "putting our money where our mouth is" really works in the context of spending £1.1 billion on preparation (feels weirdly apt for this government though: we've won a huge government and have five years to save mainstream politics, time to slowly work t what we want to do )

[garbon]

Rachel Reeves was on BBC Breakfast. When they asked her how she relaxes she appeared to suffer a mental breakdown. What a horribly awkward response to a fluff question. She did eventually give a shout out to the 7 Wonders boardgame.

[Sheilbh]

Rachel Reeves was on BBC Breakfast. When they asked her how she relaxes she appeared to suffer a mental breakdown. What a horribly awkward response to a fluff question. She did eventually give a shout out to the 7 Wonders boardgame.

It's always similar with Starmer doing fluffy questions in interviews. There's a bit of me that thinks in part it's about trying to maintain a private life which I sort of respect.

I always a lot of it must besomething you learn or just gain through practice - but then I look at someone lik Zack Polanski and wonder if some of it is just natural?

Separately I think the West Mids Chief Constable has to go. I'd add among other aspects to this story that the Jewish community was not consulted by the police (they said it was). The police also appear to have basically fabricated the risk assessment after they made their decision to support it (the early version has leaked). Also an AI point - and I don't think this will be the last time this happens:

West Midlands police chief constable feels 'unfairly treated'
Craig Guildford, who banned Maccabi Tel Aviv fans, is under pressure to resign after Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, said she had 'no confidence' in him
Steven Swinford, Political Editor | Fiona Hamilton, Chief Reporter | Ben Ellery, Deputy Chief Reporter
Wednesday January 14 2026, 7.55pm, The Times

The chief constable of West Midlands police feels "unfairly treated" and is resisting pressure to resign, despite having lost the confidence of the home secretary.

Craig Guildford is said to be "lawyering up" after Shabana Mahmood called for him to go over a decision to ban Israeli fans from travelling to a Maccabi Tel Aviv match against Aston Villa.

A "damning" report by His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary found that Guildford's force had retrofitted "exaggerated and untrue" evidence to justify the ban, made misleading public statements and failed to properly engage with the Jewish community.

Mahmood said that there had been a "failure of leadership that has harmed the reputation and eroded public confidence in West Midlands police and policing more broadly".

It means that Labour, the Conservatives and Reform UK have all now called for Guildford to stand down, as well as Richard Parker, the Labour mayor of the West Midlands. The Times has been told that other chief constables hold the same view and believe that he should "do the right thing" and go to avoid doing more damage.

However Mahmood does not have the power to sack him, with the onus instead on Simon Foster, the local police and crime commissioner. Foster said on Wednesday night that he would delay a decision until a meeting on January 27 at the earliest, adding that "due process and the law" must be possible.

He has accused some MPs on the home affairs select committee of bias after The Times reported that they believe Guildford should be sacked. It opens the prospect of a stalemate that could last for weeks or even months.

A senior police source said: "We are all completely baffled. He is a dead man walking, he needs to go. There is agreement across the political sphere and the policing sphere. He should carry the can. If he doesn't he will drag us all down."

However, a source familiar with Guildford's position said he will resist the pressure.

"He feels unfairly treated. He could have apologised but he's too arrogant. It looks like he's digging in but his position is difficult to justify. He's the author of his misfortune."

Mahmood called for Guildford to go after a highly critical report by Sir Andy Cooke, His Majesty's chief inspector of constabulary.

Cooke found that West Midlands police did not properly consult the Jewish community and was guilty of "confirmation bias", focusing on intelligence to support its desire for a ban rather than following the evidence.

The force admitted it did not publicly reveal other relevant information, such as the risk to Israeli fans from locals, in an effort to "avoid increasing local community tension".

Mahmood said that the most "disquieting" parts of the report were "exaggerated or simply untrue" claims about alleged violence by Maccabi fans in Holland.

The first home secretary in over 20 years to declare no confidence in a police chief, she outlined a "damning" report that catalogued failings that "did not just affect the travelling fans but let down our entire Jewish community in the West Midlands and across the country".

Mahmood said the inspectorate report exposed a "failure of leadership that has harmed the reputation and eroded public confidence in West Midlands police and policing more broadly".

The force had justified its ban using purported intelligence from Dutch police about the behaviour of Maccabi fans at a prior fixture in Amsterdam. But Cooke's report detailed a litany of inaccuracies in West Midland police's report to the local Safety Advisory Group (Sag) that concluded allowing fans was "high risk".

False claims including that Maccabi threw innocent people into the river, when in fact an Israeli supporter was thrown into a canal by members of a pro-Palestinian group. Cooke found no evidence for the force's claim that 5,000 officers were deployed in the Netherlands over a number of days for the fixture, nor for the claim that over 200 of the 2,800 Israeli fans who travelled were linked to the IDF.

While Cooke's report points to evidence that Maccabi Tel Aviv fans targeted individual Muslims and pro-Palestinians, this was conflated by the police to say they intentionally targeted Muslim communities.

Piling the pressure on Guildford, the chief was personally implicated because he had reviewed and approved the report to Sag. Mahmood said he should have "ensured more professional and thorough work was done".

Guildford had already issued an apology earlier on Wednesday after admitting false intelligence about a fictitious Maccabi Tel Aviv fixture against West Ham also referenced in the Sag report was generated by AI — something he vigorously denied when he gave evidence to the home affairs select committee last week.

He did not respond to requests for comment last night and Foster signalled that no immediate action would be taken, saying he would wait until later this month before questioning the chief constable in public.

Critics said the timetable risked prolonging uncertainty at a time when the government, parliament and police watchdogs had already reached stark conclusions about the force's conduct.

Nick Timothy, a Conservative MP who has uncovered many of the failings, said: "Of course the chief constable must go and so must his senior team. But there are important questions for the government now. Shabana Mahmood was told the ban was under consideration in advance, yet did nothing. It seems the prime minister was also told in advance."

Lord Austin, a former Labour MP, said the report was devastating: "It details how the force presented evidence that is either 'exaggerated' or 'simply untrue' and only sought evidence to support a decision they had already made.

"This entire saga shows why the government and the police must stamp out the sinister disease of antisemitism on our streets once and for all. A good place to start would be for the PCC to come out of hiding, do his job and fire the chief constable."

West Midlands police put out a statement that acknowledged mistakes were made but made no mention of Guildford. The force emphasised that "none of this was done with an intent of deliberate distortion or discrimination" and that its planning was "always about public safety of all communities".

For over a decade the power to hire and fire chief constables has rested with PCCs, a role that is being scrapped by Labour. Mahmood said she would restore the power to the home secretary to dismiss chiefs in light of "significant or persistent failings".

The HMCI report did say the errors which resulted in "misleading statements" were a result of "carelessness rather than any deliberate distortion" (see Microsoft CoPilot hallucinating a West Ham match). They also found it was not because of malice, antisemitism or political pressure but just didn't think how this would look "it focused on reducing the risk of short-term disorder and long-term damage to local community relations due to the presence of Maccabi Tel Aviv fans. It lacked the necessary foresight to recognise the long-term, global consequence." But despite that the conclusions are still pretty damning about the force - especially at the top - "these shortcomings are symptomatic of a force not applying the necessary strategic oversight and not paying enough attention to important matters of detail, including at the most senior levels."

I'd add a slight caveat to the antisemitism point because I think there's a bit of mismatch on intent and outcome there.

But all round he should resign or be fired.

[garbon]

I am not sure that quite works for Reeves as she first said running but then her waffling answer was all about things she does with her kids. And surely if it was privacy focused that would be key thing to keep private.

[Sheilbh]

Didn't hear it but that's fair point - so I'll witdraw my very tentative benefit of the doubt

[garbon]

Now Jenrick might join Reform?

[Sheilbh]

I've said before but I think Badenoch has the right strategy and is doing pretty well (from a very low base). But I think an impressive move on Jenrick (who I've never really bought). To that I'd add the contrast here because in the summer there was a lot of leadership speculation about both parties. I think was ultimately about because she's in a strong position - good conference speech, doing a lot better at PMQs, good budget response (and I think her bit at the Scottish Tories event this evening on Jenrick was very effective). I think that's why she could fire Jenrick in this very political way for this while Starmer is ultimately having to put up with Streeting.

I think Tamas is right - there's a point where taking Tory defectors actually trashes the Reform brand and I think Zahawi and Jenrick may well be it.

Edit: In a way I'm surprised Reform went for it - there's so much stuff from both sides (in part because Jenrick is just an opportunist).

[Richard Hakluyt]

Jenrick is a man with principles, and if you don't like them, well he does have others.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Jenrick is a man with principles, and if you don't like them, well he does have others.

that sounds like a Pratchett quote

[Richard Hakluyt]

Its a paraphrase of something Marx once said......Groucho that is.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ah, thanks.