Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

The cynical side of me concurs with Otto's analysis.  I think there is no greater damage that we can do to Putin than just letting him invade.  I'm sure there is going to be a Russian radio station on the border somewhere attacked by Ukrainians before he marches in, but I think even Russian gaslighting has a limit.  Not only is it going to be costly militarily for him, but it's also going to making it much harder for him to cultivate useful idiots in the West, who have been his most effective weapons to date against the West.

The Ukrainian lover of democracy in me really doesn't want to see it happen, though.  The Ukrainian democracy may be highly imperfect, but it's not a complete sham, and Ukrainians haven't yet given in to the cancerous cynicism that many are suffering from even in Western democracies.

For a while.
Then Russia apologises seeks to start a new  chapter and make up and it all starts again.

[Jacob]

Interesting short article on Russia's logistical capabilities in the context of Poland, the Baltics, and Ukraine: https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Summary: Once Russia is operating 90+ miles from their border, their ability to execute a fait accomplit is severely hampered by Russian logistical capabilities.

[Berkut]

Interesting short article on Russia's logistical capabilities in the context of Poland, the Baltics, and Ukraine: https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Summary: Once Russia is operating 90+ miles from their border, their ability to execute a fait accomplit is severely hampered by Russian logistical capabilities.

That is some good stuff Jake. Thanks!

[Darth Wagtaros]

It was a good read.  Unfortunately, logic doesn't always plays a part when it comes to making decisions when national and personal pride are on the line.  Just look at US politics in the last twenty years.

[Tamas]

It was a good read.  Unfortunately, logic doesn't always plays a part when it comes to making decisions when national and personal pride are on the line.  Just look at US politics in the last twenty years.

For me one of the most shocking on that front was reading, not too long ago, an article on the now researchable meeting logs of Soviet leaders prior to the invasion of Afghanistan. I forgot the details of why they felt like they had to do it, but they were quite acutely aware what a massive risk it was and how very easily it could turn into an absolute nightmare. Yet they felt compelled to go in.

TBF that seems very similar to the American decision making process over Vietnam.

[Sheilbh]

For me one of the most shocking on that front was reading, not too long ago, an article on the now researchable meeting logs of Soviet leaders prior to the invasion of Afghanistan. I forgot the details of why they felt like they had to do it, but they were quite acutely aware what a massive risk it was and how very easily it could turn into an absolute nightmare. Yet they felt compelled to go in.

TBF that seems very similar to the American decision making process over Vietnam.

I feel like there's a very good book in the Soviet war in Afghanistan that probably has a lot of interesting resonances and threads to the present. Not sure if it's possible or what access is like in the archives.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Nato/EU are not going to intervene militarily in Ukraine, nor should they. Putin is not going to invade Ukraine either. Let's not overestimate Russia's power and influence.

The thing to keep in mind is NATO works based on self-defense of NATO members, it would actually be very crazy to say we have to defend a country that is not in NATO, and that we have no defense pacts with, simply because...they want to join NATO at some point, maybe? It's also not actually a good thing for Ukraine to join NATO and something we should never realistically pursue--for that reason I think it's probably worthwhile for Biden to make that clear to Putin to avoid an unnecessary situation. It really isn't in NATO's strategic interests to add Ukraine to the alliance.

[Valmy]

In fact I think it is in our strategic interest to not do so for the Bismarckian reasons that you already said.

[PJL]

Interesting short article on Russia's logistical capabilities in the context of Poland, the Baltics, and Ukraine: https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

Summary: Once Russia is operating 90+ miles from their border, their ability to execute a fait accomplit is severely hampered by Russian logistical capabilities.

The Germans faced similar issues against the Russians during WW2. Didn't stop them from going to war against the USSR and nearly succeeding.

[celedhring]

I showed that article to somebody I know in NATO and he says the author underestimates Russian logistic capabilities.

[Habbaku]

I showed that article to somebody I know in NATO and he says the author underestimates Russian logistic capabilities.

And now you're going around blabbing to our 305 Russian guests. 

[Jacob]

Yeah, I think were I Biden and cynical I think my attitude would be: You go knock yourself out Putin. Just know that:

a) we'll be supplying whatever Ukrainians are resisting you to the maximum, to drive the price up for you;

b) obviously more and broader economic sanctions, I'm sure you'll enjoy those;

c) increasing conflict with Russia is not a bad thing for me, given how you obviously support my political opponents - pointing American patriotism in an anti-Russian direction doesn't seem a bad move for me right now.

I'm probably missing some nuance somewhere, though.

[Jacob]

I showed that article to somebody I know in NATO and he says the author underestimates Russian logistic capabilities.

Very possible.

[Syt]

[Sheilbh]

Preparation is sensible but this does not sound great:

Prepare a swift response to Russia invading Ukraine, Latvia tells west
Nato not sending a clear signal would mean 'glue that keeps us together' has failed, says foreign minister
Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor
Tue 7 Dec 2021 13.13 GMT

A swift reprisal package against Russia – including US troops and Patriot missiles stationed in the Baltics, the cutting off of Russia from the Swift banking payments system and reinstated sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline – must be prepared now in case it invades Ukraine, the Latvian foreign minister has said.

The warning from Edgars Rinkēvičs comes as Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin prepare to hold talks about the growing tensions.

The US has said it would send reinforcements to Nato's eastern flank in the event of an invasion, as well as imposing severe new economic measures against Russia.

With an estimated 100,000 Russian troops already gathered within striking distance of the borders, the situation is the worst it's been since 2015, when Moscow staged a large-scale incursion into Ukraine, clandestinely sending tanks and artillery to encircle Ukrainian troops and compelling Kyiv to sign a peace agreement in Minsk that has since come close to collapse.

Rinkēvičs said he had already discussed the issue with the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, when Latvia hosted the Nato foreign ministers summit last week.

"Russia has to know that if you do something bad in Ukraine then the Nato and US presence in the eastern flank of the alliance will increase. If you do this, you will provoke a bigger presence than now", he said.

"These decisions had to be made now through bilateral channels and the alliance so if Russia acts there can be a swift and broad response that does not take months or years.

"Work is already underway for a tough economic sanctions package, including the disconnection of Russia from the Swift banking system, sanctions on the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 and other economic sanctions. That package needs to be prepared so it can be applied reasonably quickly. We need to be able to target those who are helping Russia to get more revenues.

"In addition, there must be an increase in the Nato presence in the eastern and Black Sea flank. If there is military activity in Europe, and an aggressive stance by the Russian federation, we must be prepared to defend the territory of the alliance and to send a clear signal that this is a direct consequence of Russian activity."

He added that Russia needed to be told Nato would not accept its red lines on countries such as Ukraine and Georgia being admitted to the alliance. "If the country in question is ready to join Nato, that is a sovereign Nato decision and there will be no third country meddling", he said.
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He also said, regardless of whether there was an invasion, it would be possible at the last minute to prevent the near-complete Nord Stream 2 pipeline going ahead, saying it was a matter for the EU energy ministers: " ... that is a decision for the European Union and this could be achieved. Some European nations have started procedures requiring the European Commission to check the applicability of EU law to Nord Stream. There is no straight easy answer."

The pipeline, bypassing the existing route through Ukraine, would deprive Kyiv of badly needed transit revenues, and make Europe even more dependent on Russian gas at a time of rising prices and geopolitical tension.

"If Nato fails to protect its member states or its territories," he warned, "then it will not just be a military and political failure but a complete mental collapse of the system of values that have been built since the end of world war two. It will mean the whole transatlantic community will be in complete disarray and the glue that keeps us together has failed".